GBP/USD – Pound dips as Brexit drama continues

GBP/USD has posted losses in the Friday session. In North American trade, the pair is trading at 1.2832 down 0.34% on the day. It’s a quiet end to the week, with no British events. The U.S will release manufacturing and services PMIs, both minor events.

With the Brexit clock ticking down towards the March deadline, we can expect more volatility from the British pound. The drama continues on Sunday, as Prime Minister May and EU leaders are scheduled to sign a withdrawal agreement in Brussels at a special Brexit summit. Still, uncertainty abounds, as the post-Brexit relationship between the parties remains unclear. Some EU members feel that Britain is getting too sweet a deal, and Spain has warned it could veto the deal unless it has more of a say over any agreement concerning Gibraltar. A solution to the Irish border issue has proved elusive, although everyone seems to agree that a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland is not an option.

Back home, Prime Minister May will have an uphill battle pushing the deal through parliament, with the Labor party and many Conservative MPs set to vote against the deal. May has argued that the withdrawal agreement is better than a no-deal scenario, but both sides remain ready for this worst-case possibility. On Friday, German finance minister Olaf Scholz warned that a no-deal Brexit would cause significant economic harm to both sides, adding that Germany was prepared for such an outcome.

Is the U.S. economy headed for a slowdown? The markets have grown accustomed to strong economic numbers from the U.S, but quarterly GDP releases have been softening, and there has even been talk of a recession. This has led to speculation that the Federal Reserve could ease up on its interest rate hikes next year. Only a few weeks ago, there were expectations that the Fed could raise rates each quarter in 2019, but the mood has become more cautious. The U.S.-China trade war has caused a slowdown both economies, and President Trump’s $1.5 trillion tax cut has boosted the economy, but its effect on the economy is fading. A rollback in U.S rate hikes would make the greenback less attractive to investors, which would be bullish for other currencies such as the British pound.

European open – Big weekend ahead for Brexit

Gold appeal ahead of G20

GBP/USD Fundamentals

Friday (November 23)

  • 9:45 US Flash Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 55.8
  • 9:45 US Flash Services PMI. Estimate 55.0

*All release times are EST

*Key events are in bold

GBP/USD for Friday, November 23, 2018

GBP/USD November 23 at 7:00 EST

Open: 1.2876 High: 1.2883 Low: 1.2803 Close: 1.2832

GBP/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2589 1.2706 1.2812 1.2915 1.3048 1.3173

GBP/USD was flat in the Asian session and has posted losses in the European session

  • 1.2812 is under pressure in support. It could break on Friday
  • 1.2915 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 1.2812 to 1.2915

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.2812, 1.2706, 1.2589 and 1.2488
  • Above: 1.2915, 1.3048 and 1.3173

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.