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EUR/USD – Euro edges higher as Fed may slow rate increases

EUR/USD has posted slight gains in the Tuesday session, erasing the losses seen on Monday. In the European session, the pair is trading at 1.1431, down 0.17% on the day. On the release front, German PPI dipped to 0.3%, matching the estimate. In the U.S, the focus is on construction data. Building Permits is expected to improve to 1.26 million and Housing Permits is also forecast to rise to 1.23 million. On Wednesday, the U.S. releases durable goods orders, unemployment claims and consumer confidence.

The Federal Reserve remains on track to gradually raise rates in 2019, but the pace could be slower than anticipated just a few weeks ago. There’s no denying that the U.S economy is currently in great shape, with unemployment at historically low levels and the $1.5 trillion tax cut package boosting economic growth. However, the rosy picture could change next year. The U.S-China trade war is expected to take a bite out of U.S growth, and the stimulus from the tax cut will fade over time. GDP has been slowing on an annualized basis – from a sizzling 4.2% in the first quarter, to 3.5% in Q2, with Q3 expected at just 2.7%. The downward trend is expected to continue into 2019, with a growth forecast of 2.0% to 2.5%. If these forecasts materialize, the Fed could decide to raise rates more slowly next year. Many analysts had expected a hike of 25 basis points each quarter, but that could be revised lower to three rates next year. A December hike stands at 70 percent, down from 75% just one week ago. This has made the U.S dollar less attractive to investors and boosted the euro and other major currencies.

Commodities Weekly: Palladium hits record high, nears gold price [1]

Price action is swirling around this week’s key drivers. Dovish Fed, Brexit and Trade War [2]

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Tuesday (November 20)

Wednesday (November 21)

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Tuesday, November 20, 2018

EUR/USD for November 20 at 6:55 EST

Open: 1.1453 High: 1.1473 Low: 1.1422 Close: 1.1431

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1120 1.1212 1.1300 1.1434 1.1553 1.1685

EUR/USD was flat in the Asian session and has edged lower in the European session

Further levels in both directions:

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher [6]

Market Analyst at OANDA [7]
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including Investing.com, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.
Kenny Fisher

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