DAX pauses after discouraging week

The DAX index is unchanged in the Monday session. Currently, the DAX is trading at 11,336, down 0.04% on the day. On the release front, there are no major indicators on the schedule. The eurozone’s current surplus dropped sharply to EUR 16.9 billion, short of the forecast of EUR 24.2 billion. This was the smallest surplus since July 2014. On Tuesday, the eurozone releases PPI.

The DAX is coming off a dismal week, recording losses of 2.16 percent. Investor risk appetite soured after Germany reported that GDP in the third quarter had declined 0.2%, marking the first contraction in GDP since 2015. Another alarm signal is weak investor confidence. German ZEW Economic Sentiment posted a second straight soft release for November, with a reading of -24.1 points. This points to deep pessimism on the part of institutional investors and analysts. The ZEW added that investors did not expect a rapid recovery from the current weakness, and if is the prevailing sentiment among investors, more headwinds could be in store for European equity markets.

The ECB remains on track to wind up its stimulus package in December, but policymakers may have to reassess this stance, based on recent eurozone growth numbers, which are the weakest since 2014. Germany, the locomotive of the eurozone, has hit some headwinds, after posting a decline in GDP in the third quarter. The simmering trade dispute between the U.S. and China shows no signs of being resolved anytime soon, which will continue to take a bite out of German and eurozone exports. If the eurozone economy continues to soften, there could be calls on the ECB to continue stimulus into 2019.

Pound steady at start of potentially volatile week

The Feds telegraph hesitancy, OPEC supply cut and a cacophony of deafening US-China alarm bells

Economic Calendar

Monday (November 19)

  • 4:00 Eurozone Current Account. Estimate 24.2B. Actual 16.9B
  • All Day – Eurogroup Meetings
  • 6:00 German Buba Monthly Report

Tuesday (November 20)

  • 2:00 German PPI. Estimate 0.3%
  • All Day – ECOFIN Meetings
  • 10:00 German Buba President Weidmann Speaks

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

DAX, Monday, November 19 at 7:50 EST

Open: 11,384 Low: 11,419 High: 11,301 Close: 11,336

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Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.