USD/CAD – Canadian dollar edges higher, U.S. consumer inflation matches forecast

The Canadian dollar has edged higher in the Wednesday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3221, down 0.20% on the day. On the release front, there are no Canadian events for a third straight day. In the U.S, CPI improved to 0.3%, its strongest gain since January. This matched the estimate. Core CPI improved to 0.2%, also matching the forecast. On Thursday, Canada releases ADP nonfarm employment change. The U.S. will publish retail sales, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and unemployment claims.

With the U.S economy firing on all cylinders, the markets are expecting the Federal Reserve to continue raising rates. This sentiment was reinforced by Janet Yellen, former Fed chair. Yellen said on Tuesday that she expected the Fed to raise rates three or four times in 2019. This means that we can expect rate hikes once a quarter in 2019, barring a sharp downturn in the economy. The policy of gradual increases is good news for the U.S dollar, as higher interest rates means that the greenback is more attractive to investors. The Bank of Canada has taken a page out of the Federal Reserve’s book, saying that its policy of gradual rate hikes will continue into 2019. The BoC will have to continue raising rates if the Canadian dollar is to hold its own against the strong U.S. dollar.

European open – Brexit deal, Italy budget and oil

Sterling braces for wild moves after cabinet meeting

There’s significant risk ahead.

USD/CAD Fundamentals

Wednesday (November 14)

  • 8:30 US CPI. Estimate 0.3%. Actual 0.3%
  • 8:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.2%
  • 10:00 US FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
  • 18:00 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks

Thursday (November 15)

  • 8:30 Canadian ADP Nonfarm Employment
  • 8:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.5%
  • 8:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.6%
  • 8:30 US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Estimate 20.7
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 216K
  • 11:30 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Wednesday, November 14, 2018

USD/CAD, November 14 at 8:10 EST

Open: 1.3238 High: 1.3249 Low: 1.3219 Close: 1.3221

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2970 13099 1.3198 1.3292 1.3383 1.3461

USD/CAD posted slight losses in the Asian session but then recovered. The pair is showing limited movement in European trade.

  • 1.3198 is providing support
  • 1.3292 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 1.3198 to 1.3292

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.3198, 1.3099, 1.2970 and 1.2831
  • Above: 1.3292, 1.3383 and 1.3461

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.