GBP/USD – British pound pauses from rally, Fed statement next

GBP/USD has ticked lower in the Thursday session. In North American trade, the pair is trading at 1.3112, down 0.12% on the day. There are no British events on the schedule. In the U.S., unemployment claims remained pegged at 214 thousand. Later in the day, the Federal Reserve winds up its policy meeting and will release a rate statement. On Friday, the U.K releases GDP and Manufacturing Production. On Friday, the U.S releases Producer Price Index reports and UoM Consumer Sentiment.

The pound has enjoyed a strong week, gaining 1.22% in that time. The pound is currently at its highest level in three weeks, boosted by broad weakness from the U.S dollar. GBP/USD is unchanged on Thursday, but traders can expect some movement from the pair on Friday, with the release of GDP reports. Preliminary GDP for Q3 is expected to post a strong gain of 0.6%, after a 0.4% gain in Final GDP in the second quarter. A strong GDP release would likely reignite the pound rally.

After digesting the results of the U.S. midterm elections, investors will be focusing on the Federal Reserve, which will hold its monthly policy meeting. The Fed is widely expected to maintain interest rates, after raising rates by 25 basis points in September. The markets will be combing through the rate statement, as the tone of the statement could move the U.S dollar. The Fed has sounded hawkish in the September statement, acknowledging the booming U.S economy and reiterating that it planned to continue its stance of gradually raising rates. The Fed is expected to raise rates in December, which would mark a fourth hike in 2018, and continue with at least three rate hikes in 2019.

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GBP/USD Fundamentals

Thursday (November 8)

  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 214K. Actual 214K
  • 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 56B
  • 14:00 US FOMC Statement
  • 14:00 US Federal Funds Rate. Estimate <2.25%

Friday (November 9)

  • 4:30 British GDP. Estimate 0.1%
  • 4:30 British Manufacturing Production. Estimate 0.1%
  • 4:30 British Preliminary GDP. Estimate 0.1%
  • 8:30 US PPI. Estimate 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Core PPI. Estimate 0.2%
  • 10:00 US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 98.0

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

GBP/USD for Thursday, November 9, 2018

GBP/USD November 9 at 11:10 EST

Open: 1.3127 High: 1.3150 Low: 1.3087 Close: 1.3112

GBP/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2812 1.2915 1.3048 1.3173 1.3301 1.3408

GBP/USD showed little movement in the Asian session. The pair edged higher in European trade and is steady in North American trade

  • 1.3048 is providing support
  • 1.3173 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 1.3048 to 1.3173

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1,3048, 1.2915, 1.2812 and 1.2723
  • Above: 1.3173, 1.3301 and 1.3408

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.