OANDA European open – US midterms drive caution

Investors take to the sidelines ahead of US vote

US midterms may not spring any shocks in terms of who wins control of what but investors are understandably taking a cautious approach ahead of the results, given how markets have been over the last month.

With the Democrats favourites to take control of the House and the Republicans the Senate, the next couple of years may be far more difficult for Trump. When you consider how markets have done since his election victory – granted, primarily on the back of tax reforms – it’s easy to see why this may not be the most investor-friendly result.

Source – FiveThirtyEight

A couple of relatively flat days may also not be the worst thing for the markets as well. An extended run without a big sell-off is just what the doctor ordered after a rather unpleasant October. And while memories may be quite short, I don’t think the anxiety we saw last month has fully passed so the longer this run can last the better.

Election time

Brexit goes quiet after flood of rumours late last week

It’s all gone a bit quiet on the Brexit front, which may be a good thing if that means the time for media bashing has ended and serious talks are taking place. All the speculation last week about the 21 November completion date and deals on financial services were quickly dismissed by both sides – although I still believe there is some truth to the latter – but that doesn’t mean progress isn’t being made elsewhere.

Naturally, investors are taking precautions against the possibility of a no deal Brexit but I still firmly believe that everything will be done to avert it and a fudge will be found to see us through the end of March and into the transition period. It’s simply a case that all the technical work and final negotiations take time. And while it may have been a quiet week so far, I expect plenty more rumours, leaks and reports over the coming weeks.

Oil near key support

We’re also seeing some stability in oil markets following a quite brutal October. Brent and WTI are both now trading back around the early summer lows, with all that talk of $100 a barrel crude seeming a distant memory.

Oil (WTI and Brent) Daily Chart

OANDA fxTrade Advanced Charting Platform

The bulls have been seriously hurt over the last month and with momentum still very much against them, there may not be too much of a rush to hop back in. That said, the $71 level in Brent and $62-63 level in WTI are very interesting technical levels, a break of which could be very bearish for the pair.

Gold edges lower, U.S congressional elections loom

A bullish case for Gold?

Gold is another that has stabilised over the last few weeks, finding a range between $1,220 and $1,240. A dollar that’s still well bid and risk appetite returning are two significant headwinds for the yellow metal but I am curious how long one of these will last and whether the greenback taking it easy over the festive period may be a tailwind for Gold even as risk appetite returns


Economic Calendar

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This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam