GBP/USD – Surging pound shrugs off soft services PMI

GBP/USD has started the week with solid gains. In Monday’s North American session, the pair is trading at 1.3022, up 0.40% on the day. On the release front, Services PMI dipped to 52.2, shy of the estimate of 53.4 points. In the U.S, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI posted a strong gain of 60.3, above the estimate of 59.3 points. On Tuesday, the U.S will release JOLTS Job Openings and all eyes will be on the U.S midterm congressional elections.

The pound jumped 1.1% last week, and the positive trend has continued on Monday. Reports that the U.K and the European Union are closing in on an agreement over Brexit has boosted the currency, after showing losses in October. On Friday, David Lidington, a close adviser of Prime Minister May, said that the two sides were “very close to resolving” the dispute over the Irish border, one of the most vexing problems in the Brexit negotiations. May would like the EU to host a special Brexit summit this month, with an eye to signing a deal before the end of the year. However, the Europeans have not showed the same enthusiasm emanating from London, and they will likely want to see more concessions from May before agreeing to a Brexit summit.

The U.S economy continues to perform well, a fact that will be hammered home by President Trump and the Republicans in the few hours left until Election Day on Tuesday. The labor market is at or beyond capacity, and nonfarm payrolls surged to 250 thousand, crushing the estimate of 194 thousand. Wage growth has also strengthened, with strong gains of 3.1% in the past year. Despite these strong numbers, the dollar failed to make headway on Friday, as reports that President Trump will present his Chinese counterpart with a trade deal proposal increased risk appetite and weighed on the greenback.

Decision Time

Markets in wait and see mode ahead of midterms

GBP/USD Fundamentals

Monday (November 5)

  • 4:30 British Services PMI. Estimate 53.4. Actual 52.2
  • 9:45 US Final Services PMI. Estimate 54.7. Actual 54.8
  • 10:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 59.3. Actual 60.3
  • Tentative – US Loan Officer Survey
  • 19:01 British BRC Retail Sales Monitor. Estimate 0.6%

Tuesday (November 6)

  • 10:00 US JOLTS Job Openings
  • All Day  – US Congressional Elections

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

GBP/USD for Monday, November 5, 2018

GBP/USD November 5 at 10:55 EST

Open: 1.2970 High: 1.3036 Low: 1.2964 Close: 1.3022

 

GBP/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2723 1.2812 1.2915 1.3048 1.3173 1.3301

GBP/USD edged upwards in the Asian session but gave up these gains. In European trade, the pair showed limited movement. GBP/USD has posted gains in North American trade

  • 1.2915 is providing support
  • 1.3048 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 1.2915 to 1.3048

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.2915, 1.2812, 1.2723 and 1.2590
  • Above: 1.3048, 1.3173 and 1.3301

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.