USD/CAD – Canadian dollar edges lower on soft Canadian job numbers, superb NFP

The Canadian dollar has edged lower in the Friday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3098, up 0.07% on the day. On the release front, Canadian employment change slowed to 11.2 thousand, short of the estimate of 12.7 thousand. However, the unemployment rate ticked lower to 5.8%, just below the estimate of 5.9%. Over in the U.S, Nonfarm payrolls rocketed to 250 thousand, crushing the estimate of 194 thousand. This marked the second highest gain in 2018. Wage growth eased to 0.2%, matching the forecast, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7%.

Asian equity markets posted strong gains on Friday, buoyed by a report that U.S President Trump is working on a trade agreement with China, which he will present to Chinese President Xi Jinping at a Group of 20 summit in Argentina later this month. If the two economic giants are able to reach an agreement, the result would be a boon for global trade. The Canadian economy is heavily reliant on its export sector, so a stronger global economy would be good news for the Canadian dollar.

The Canadian economy grew 0.1% in August, marking a seventh straight month of expansion. Higher oil production in Alberta and higher oil prices fueled the modest gain. The economy has been performing well and remains on track for annualized growth of 2% in 2018. Unemployment is at low levels and is expected to remain pegged at 5.9% for October. The Bank of Canada raised rates last week to 1.75%, and the hawkish message from the bank was a broad hint to the markets that further rate hikes are in store. With the economy operating close to full capacity, rate hikes are an effective method of ensuring that the economy does not overheat. The BoC is also mindful that the Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates again in December, which would mark a fourth rate hike in 2018. Policymakers do not want to see divergence widen between U.S and Canadian rates, and another rate hike from the BoC would be bullish for the Canadian dollar.

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USD/CAD Fundamentals

Friday (November 2)

  • 8:30 Canadian Employment Change. Estimate 12.7K. Actual 11.2K
  • 8:30  Canadian Unemployment Rate. Estimate 5.9%. Actual 5.8%
  • 8:30 Canadian Trade Balance. Estimate 0.2B. Actual -0.4B
  • 8:30 US Average Hourly Earnings. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 193K. Actual 250K
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Rate. Estimate 3.7%. Actual 3.7%

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Friday, November 2, 2018

USD/CAD, November 2 at 8:50 DST

Open: 1.3086 High: 1.3101 Low: 1.3049 Close: 1.3098

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2733 12831 1.2970 1.3099 1.3198 1.3292

USD/CAD showed little movement in the Asian session. This pair has edged lower in European trade

  • 1.2970 is providing support
  • 1.3099 is under pressure in resistance and could break during the North American session
  • Current range: 1.2970 to 1.3099

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.2970, 1.2831 and 1.2733
  • Above: 1.3099, 1.3198, 1.3292 and 1.3383

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.