EUR/USD – Euro rally continues as German, Eurozone PMIs meet expectations

EUR/USD is higher in the Friday session, after posting sharp gains on Thursday. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1441, up 0.29% on the day. On the release front, German and eurozone manufacturing PMIs softened in October, but were within expectations. In the U.S, the focus is on employment data for October. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to climb sharply to 194 thousand, but wage growth is forecast to ease to 0.2%. The unemployment rate is expected to remain pegged at 3.7%.

The German manufacturing sector slowed for a third straight month in October, as the slowdown has now entered the fourth quarter. The October Manufacturing PMI dipped to  52.2, down from 53.7 points in September. The reading, which points to limited expansion, is the lowest since May 2016. The weak data can be directly attributed to global trade tensions, which have dampened the German export sector. China is Germany’s third largest export market, and a slowdown in China due to U.S trade tariffs could have a chilling effect on the German economy. The German central bank is forecasting zero growth in the third quarter, and growth in the eurozone also softened in the third quarter. Eurozone GDP posted a weak gain of 0.2% in the third quarter, down from the 0.4% gain in the second quarter. On an annualized basis, eurozone growth slipped to 1.7% in Q3, down from 2.1% in Q2.

Eurozone inflation is expected to rise in October. CPI Flash Estimate ticked higher from 2.1% to 2.2% and Core CPI Flash Estimate rose to 1.1%, up from 0.9%. Both of these readings matched the forecasts. The stronger inflation numbers back up ECB President Mario Draghi’s stance that inflation is showing a “relatively vigorous pick-up”. Higher oil prices are one reason behind stronger inflation numbers. Germany, the bellwether for the rest of the eurozone, is also experiencing higher inflation, which climbed 2.4% in October.

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EUR/USD Fundamentals

Friday (November 2)

  • 3:00 German Import Prices. Estimate 0.4%. Actual 0.4%
  • 3:45 French Government Budget Balance. Actual -87.1B
  • 4:15 Spanish Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 51.0. Actual 51.8
  • 4:45 Italian Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 49.7. Actual 49.2
  • 4:50 French Final Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 51.2. Actual 51.2
  • 4:55 German Final Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 52.3. Actual 52.2
  • 5:00 Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 52.1. Actual 52.0
  • 8:30 US Average Hourly Earnings. Estimate 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 193K
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Rate. Estimate 3.7%

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Friday, November 2, 2018

EUR/USD for November 1 at 6:15 DST

Open: 1.1408 High: 1.1445 Low: 1.1392 Close: 1.1441

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1212 1.1300 1.1434 1.1553 1.1685 1.1800

EUR/USD was mostly flat in the Asian session and has posted gains in European trade

  • 1.1434 is providing support
  • 1.1553 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 1.1434 to 1.1553

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1434, 1.1300, 1.1212 and 1.1120
  • Above: 1.1553, 1.1685 and 1.1800

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.