GBP/USD – British pound climbs as Brexit talks show progress

GBP/USD has surged in the Thursday session. In the North American session, the pair is trading at 1.2959, up 1.52% on the day. On the release front, the Bank of England held steady and kept the benchmark rate pegged at 0.75%. The BoE also released its inflation report. In the U.S, unemployment claims ticked lower to 214 thousand, a shade above the forecast of 213 thousand. On the manufacturing front, British Manufacturing PMI slipped to 51.1, missing the estimate of 53.0 points. ISM Manufacturing PMI also disappointed, as it fell to 57.7 points, shy of the estimate of 59.0 points. This marked a 6-month low. On Friday, the UK releases construction PMI, while in the U.S the focus will be on U.S employment numbers, with the release of wage growth and nonfarm payrolls.

The pound has jumped on Thursday, after reports that the UK and the EU had reached a milestone agreement, with the EU allowing access to Europe for British financial services companies after Brexit. However, officials in both London and Brussels denied that any deal had been reached. The fact that the pound screamed higher after the report underscores the tremendous tension over the lack of progress between the sides, with less than five months until Britain leaves the EU. Cross-border trade in financial services after Brexit is a key issue, with London eager to maintain its position as the financial capital of Europe. Thus the report that a deal had been reached would represent a significant breakthrough in the Brexit negotiations. The parties remain far apart on a range of issues, notably the Irish border. There is even disagreement on whether the sides are close to inking a Brexit deal. Prime Minister May recently told Parliament that a deal was “95% done”, while EU leaders are far more pessimistic and have expressed surprise at the optimism on the British side.

Pound soars on Brexit progress reports

 

GBP/USD Fundamentals

Thursday (November 1)

  • 3:00 British Nationwide HPI. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.0%
  • 5:30 British Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 53.0. Actual 51.1
  • 7:30 US Challenger Job Cuts. Actual 153.6%
  • 8:00 BoE Inflation Report
  • 8:00 BoE Official Bank Rate Votes. Estimate 0-0-9. Actual 0-0-9
  • 8:00 BoE Monetary Policy Summary
  • 8:00 BoE Official Bank Rate. Estimate 0.75%. Actual 0.75%
  • 8:00 BoE Asset Purchase Facility. Estimate 435B. Actual 435B
  • 8:00 BoE Asset Purchase Facility Votes. Estimate 0-0-9. Actual 0-0-9
  • 8:00 BoE Governor Carney Speaks
  • 8:30 US Preliminary Productivity. Estimate 2.2%. Actual 2.2%
  • 8:30 US Preliminary Unit Labor Costs. Estimate 1.1%. Actual 1.2%
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 213K. Actual 214K
  • 9:45 US Final Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 55.9. Actual 55.7
  • 10:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 59.0. Actual 57.7
  • 10:00 US Construction Spending. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.0%
  • 10:00 US ISM Manufacturing Prices. Estimate 67.5. Actual 71.6
  • 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 53B. Actual 48B
  • All Day – US Total Vehicle Sales. Estimate 17.1M

Friday (November 2)

  • 5:30 British Construction PMI. Estimate 52.0
  • 8:30 US Average Hourly Earnings. Estimate 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 193K
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Rate. Estimate 3.7%

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

GBP/USD for Thursday, November 1, 2018

GBP/USD October 30 at 11:45 DST

Open: 1.2766 High: 1.2831 Low: 1.2700 Close: 1.2959

 

GBP/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2723 1.2812 1.2915 1.3048 1.3173 1.3301

GBP/USD showed little movement in the Asian session. The pair posted strong gains in European trade and this trend has continued in North American trade

  • 1.2915 has switched to a support role after strong gains by GBP/USD on Thursday
  • 1.3048 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 1.2915 to 1.3048

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.2915, 1.2812, 1.2723 and 1.2590
  • Above: 1.3048, 1.3173 and 1.3301

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.