EUR/USD – Euro sleepy at start of week

EUR/USD has posted slight losses in the Monday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1387, down 0.15% on the day. On the release front, there are no eurozone indicators. In the U.S, there are no key events. On Tuesday, Germany releases Preliminary CPI and the eurozone publishes Preliminary Flash GDP. The U.S will release CB Consumer Confidence.

The U.S economy continues to purr like a smooth race engine, as Advance GDP for the third quarter jumped 3.5%, above the estimate of 3.3%. This was down from the sizzling Final GDP for Q2, which came in at 4.2%. The euro continues to struggle, as last week’s decline was one of the sharpest this year. With global stock markets spiraling lower, risk appetite has dampened as investors flock to the U.S dollar at the expense of the euro and other currencies. A rash of geopolitical hotspots has weighed on investor sentiment, including the spike in Italian debt, the Brexit impasse and the U.S-China trade war.

As expected, the ECB maintained its main refinancing rate at a flat 0.00% at its policy meeting on Thursday. ECB President Mario Draghi acknowledged that the turmoil in global markets has raised the risks to the eurozone economy, but reiterated that the ECB remained on track to wind up its asset-purchase program in December. With the euro and European stock markets heading lower this week, Draghi tried to put a positive face on recent developments. He discussed the eurozone’s “broad-based” economic growth and said he was confident that the Italian government would reach an agreement with the European Commission, which has rejected Italy’s budget since it raises the country’s deficit. However, Drahgi acknowledged that the eurozone economy has softened, and also noted the risks from the global trade war and the volatile political climate in Italy.

Euro pressured as Merkel’s CDU loses ground

U.S Dollar Stands Tall

Europe higher as tariffs hit Chinese stocks

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Monday (October 29)

  • 8:30 US Core PCE Price Index. Estimate 0.1%
  • 8:30 US Personal Spending. Estimate 0.4%
  • 8:30 US Personal Income. Estimate 0.4%
  • Tentative – US Loan Officer Survey

Tuesday (October 30)

  • All Day – German Preliminary CPI. Estimate 0.1%
  • 4:55 German Unemployment Change. Estimate -12K
  • 6:00 Eurozone Preliminary Flash GDP. Estimate 0.4%
  • 10:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. Estimate 136.3

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Monday, October 29, 2018

EUR/USD for October 29 at 7:30 DST

Open: 1.1403 High: 1.1416 Low: 1.1361 Close: 1.1387

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1120 1.1212 1.1300 1.1430 1.1553 1.1611

EUR/USD ticked lower in the Asian session. The pair is showing choppy movement in European trade

  • 1.1300 is providing support
  • 1.1434 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 1.1300 to 1.1434

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1300, 1.1212 and 1.1120
  • Above: 1.1434, 1.1553, 1.1611 and 1.1735

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.