USD/CAD – Canadian dollar slips, U.S GDP shines

The Canadian dollar has recorded considerable losses in the Friday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3144, up 0.55% on the day. On the release front, there are no Canadian events for a second straight day. In the U.S, there are two key indicators. Advance GDP for Q3 impressed with a strong gain of 3.5%, beating the estimate of 3.3%. As well, UoM Consumer Sentiment is forecast to drop to 98.9 points.

The Canadian dollar has recorded three straight weekly losses, and it appears that this week will follow the same negative trend. Despite the Bank of Canada raising interest rates earlier in the week, the Canadian dollar continues to lose ground against the strong greenback, as USD/CAD has moved higher on Friday. It’s been a rough October for the Canadian currency, which has declined 1.85 percent.

As widely expected, the BoC raised the benchmark rate on Wednesday by a quarter-point, to 1.75%. The BoC gave the economy high marks, while at the same time noting that lower oil prices and the U.S-China trade dispute could dampen economic growth. BoC Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins noted that even with the increase, rate policy remains “accommodative”, as the “neutral rate” stance won’t be reached until rates are between 2.5% and 3.5%. As the move was priced in, the Canadian dollar could only muster slight gains on Wednesday. Still, the currency has posted modest gains this week, after recording three straight weekly losses. Geopolitical hotspots continue to weigh on investor risk appetite, which has weighed on the Canadian dollar, a minor currency. Trouble spots include the spike in Italian bond yields, the Brexit impasse and the U.S-China trade war. Domestically, however, the situation is bright, and the BoC will be looking at further interest rates in order to boost inflation while ensuring that the strong Canadian economy does not overheat.

Moody US markets

OANDA European open – Markets dive on earnings

Equities Sea of red

USD/CAD Fundamentals

Friday (October 26)

  • 8:30 US Advance GDP. Estimate 3.3%. Actual 3.7%
  • 8:30 US Advance GDP Price Index. Estimate 2.1%, Actual 1.7%
  • 10:00 US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 98.9

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Friday, October 26, 2018

USD/CAD, October 26 at 9:00 DST

Open: 1.3072 High: 1.3153 Low: 1.3070 Close: 1.3144

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2831 12970 1.3067 1.3198 1.3292 1.3383

USD/CAD posted gains in the Asian session and this trend has continued in European trade

  • 1.3067 has strengthened in support as USD/CAD continues to move higher
  • 1.3198 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 1.3067 to 1.3198

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.3067, 1.2970, 1.2831 and 1.2733
  • Above: 1.3198, 1.3292 and 1.3387

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.