USD/CAD – Canadian dollar yawns as U.S durable good reports a mix

The Canadian dollar has ticked higher in the Thursday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3043, down 0.10% on the day. On the release front, there are no Canadian events. In the U.S, durable good orders were a mixed bag. Core durable goods orders remained stuck at 0.1%, missing the estimate of 0.5%. There was better news from durable goods, which fell to 0.8%, but was well above the forecast orders of -1.3%. Unemployment claims rose to 215 thousand, a shade above the forecast of 214 thousand. On Friday, the U.S publishes Advance GDP and UoM Consumer Sentiment.

As widely expected, the BoC raised the benchmark rate on Wednesday by a quarter-point, to 1.75%. The BoC gave the economy high marks, while at the same time noting that lower oil prices and the U.S-China trade dispute could dampen economic growth. BoC Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins noted that even with the increase, rate policy remains “accommodative”, as the “neutral rate” stance won’t be reached until rates are between 2.5% and 3.5%. As the move was priced in, the Canadian dollar could only muster slight gains on Wednesday. Still, the currency has posted modest gains this week, after recording three straight weekly losses. Geopolitical hotspots continue to weigh on investor risk appetite, which has weighed on the Canadian dollar, a minor currency. Trouble spots include the spike in Italian bond yields, the Brexit impasse and the U.S-China trade war. Domestically, however, the situation is bright, and the BoC will be looking at further interest rates in order to boost inflation while ensuring that the strong Canadian economy does not overheat.

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USD/CAD Fundamentals

Thursday (October 25)

• 8:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 0.5%. Actual 0.1%
• 8:30 US Durable Goods Orders. Estimate -1.3%. Actual 0.8%
• 8:30 US Goods Trade Balance. Estimate -74.9B
• 8:30 US Preliminary Wholesale Inventories. Estimate 0.5%
• 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 214K
• 10:00 US Pending Home Sales. Estimate -0.1%
• 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 47B
• 12:15 US FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
• 17:30 FOMC Member Mester Speaks

Friday (October 26)

• 8:30 US Advance GDP. Estimate 3.3%
• 8:30 US Advance GDP Price Index. Estimate 2.1%
• 10:00 US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 98.9

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Thursday, October 25, 2018

USD/CAD, October 25 at 8:10 DST

Open: 1.3058 High: 1.3058 Low: 1.3015 Close: 1.3043

USD/CAD Technical

USD/CAD edged lower in the Asian session and has recovered in European trade

• 1.2970 is providing support
• 1.3067 is a weak resistance line
• Current range: 1.2970 to 1.3067

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.2970, 1.2831 and 1.2733
• Above: 1.3067, 1.3198, 1.3292 and 1.3387

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