EUR/USD – Lack of data leaves euro subdued

EUR/USD has steadied on Monday, after posting considerable gains in the Friday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1499, down 0.13% on the day. The sole event is the German Bundesbank monthly report. On Tuesday, Germany releases PPI and eurozone consumer confidence. There are no U.S releases on the schedule.

The euro ended the week with considerable gains, boosted by a strong eurozone current account and soft U.S housing numbers. Eurozone current account surplus climbed from EUR 21.3 billion to 23.9 billion, crushing the estimate of EUR 21.4 billion. This marked a 4-month high. In the U.S, Existing Home Sales slipped t0 5.15 million, down from 5.34 million a month earlier. This was the smallest lowest existing home sales level since November 2015. The increase in interest rates has led to higher mortgage rates, which has dampened home sales. U.S construction numbers were soft earlier in the week, as Building Permits and Housing Starts both missed their estimates.

Relations between the U.S and China are frosty, with the markets nervous that the trade war could worsen. The U.S Treasury Department released its semi-annual report on foreign exchange rates, and there was some relief in the markets as the report did not name China as a currency manipulator. Still, the report said that the U.S was “deeply disappointed’ with that China refuses to disclose the extent of its foreign currency intervention. The Chinese yuan has slipped some 9 percent since April, and U.S officials are concerned that China has deliberately weakened the currency in order to counter U.S tariffs on Chinese goods, and will continue to monitor China’s currency practices.

Desperately seeking stability

China equities lead the pack as US indices lag

European update – The calm before the storm

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Monday (October 22)

  • 6:00 German Buba Monthly Report

Tuesday (October 23)

  • 2:00 German PPI. Estimate 0.3%
  • 10:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence. Estimate -3
  • 10:00 US Richmond Manufacturing Index. Estimate 25
  • 13:30 US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Monday, October 22, 2018

EUR/USD for October 22 at 7:15 DST

Open: 1.1514 High: 1.1550 Low: 1.1496 Close: 1.1501

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1190 1.1300 1.1434 1.1553 1.1611 1.1735

EUR/USD ticked lower in the Asian session but then recovered. In European trade, the pair edged higher but has reversed directions and headed lower.

  • 1.1434 is under pressure in support
  • 1.1553 is the next line of resistance

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1434, 1.1300 and 1.1190
  • Above: 1.1553, 1.1611, 1.1735 and 1.1840
  • Current range: 1.1434 to 1.1553

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.