USD/CAD Canadian Dollar Higher as BOC Business Survey Boosts Optimism

The Canadian dollar surged on Monday. The loonie is trading higher by 0.21 percent at 1.2992. The US dollar lost traction earlier in the session with the release of the US retails sales data for September. Core and headline US sales were lower than the forecast and the loonie was boosted the by the release of the Bank of Canada (BoC) business survey.

Survey responses show Canadian Business prospectes are robust in the near term. Firms expect growth to pick up from domestic and foreign customers. The contrast of news between the USD and the CAD favoured the rise of the loonie. The Bank of Canada (BoC) is highly anticipated to hike rates next week, and the optimistic view of businesses will validate the decision.

usdcad Canadian dollar graph, October 15, 2018

Oil prices are lower as supply concerns and geopolitics are driving energy prices at the moment. Gold is having a moment as it quickly reclaimed its title as a safe haven destination after the stock market sell off.

Trade concerns have eased after Canada was included at the last minute in the USMCA, but global concerns have escalated. The US-China trade dispute continues with no side giving an inch and now a missing journalist is putting pressure on Saudi Arabia which does not take criticism lightly.

The Canadian dollar is starting the week on the right foot, but the positive trend will face the release of the notes from the September FOMC. The US central bank hiked rates and is still expected by the market to do so again in December.

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza