Sterling Down on May Brexit Warnings

May resorts to rehashing old threats after failed Salzburg meeting

Theresa May took to the podium on Friday in an attempt to hit back at the EU after she was humiliated in Salzburg in what was meant to be a positive meeting ahead of the Tory Party Conference.

While May will be desperate for the takeaway from the speech to be that the UK is serious in its no deal threats and the EU should take their proposal seriously and resume dialogue based on the government’s Chequers plan or risk such an outcome, the speech itself was nothing but a stern rehash of what has been said in the past. As ever, these talks are showing themselves to be a frustrating and soul destroying game of chicken among a group of officials that agree that no deal is a bad outcome but are determined to drag them out in the hope of slightly better terms.

The pound came under pressure in the lead up to May’s speech and that continued during and in the aftermath, with traders potentially seeing this as a sign that no deal is a real and increasingly likely outcome. That may be exactly the message May wanted to send to the media, her party – particularly the Brexiteers – and the EU but I do not believe it changes anything. A fudged 11th hour deal that kicks the can down the road on the toughest decisions still remains the most likely outcome and I do not believe the appetite exists on either side for no deal that makes it as likely as we’re being led to believe.

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Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Currency Analyst at OANDA
Based in London, England, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a Market Analyst. With more than five years' experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while conducting macroeconomic commentary. He has been published by The Financial Times, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Telegraph, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Sky News, Bloomberg, CNBC and BBC. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and he is recognized as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam

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