EUR/USD – Euro gains ground, investors eye US nonfarm payrolls

EUR/USD is slightly higher in the Friday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1646, up 0.20% on the day. On the release front, German data disappointed. Industrial Production declined 1.1%, well short of the estimate of +0.2%. As well, Germany’s trade surplus narrowed to EUR 15.8 billion, shy of the forecast of 19.1 billion. In the eurozone, Revised GDP posted a 0.4% gain for a second straight month, matching the forecast. In the U.S, the focus is on employment indicators. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise to 193 thousand, and Average Hourly Earnings is forecast to tick lower to 0.2%.

German manufacturing data has been dismal this week. The latest casualty was Industrial Production, which posted a second straight decline. The reading of -1.1% was the weakest reading in five months. Earlier in the week, factory orders declined and Final Manufacturing PMI softened. New orders for German manufactured goods are down in the eurozone as well as elsewhere, which could negatively affect the German economy.

The U.S-China trade spat has been in the headlines for months, with the U.S slapping tariffs on China and the latter responding in kind. Will President Trump ratchet up the trade war between the world’s two largest economies? Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese tariffs, and the time period for public consultations ended on Thursday, which means that Trump is free to announce another round of tariffs at any time. The dollar has benefited from the global trade war, and further tariffs against China could boost the greenback against its major rivals, including the euro.

It’s jobs or tariffs

Why don’t you, show me the way?

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Friday (September 7)

  • 2:00 German Industrial Production. Estimate +0.2%. Actual -1.1%
  • 2:00 German Trade Balance. Estimate 19.1B. Actual 15.8B
  • 2:45 French Government Budget Balance. Estimate -82.8B
  • 2:45 French Industrial Production. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.7%
  • 2:45 French Trade Balance. Estimate -5.7B. Actual -3.5B
  • 4:00 Italian Retail Sales. Estimate -0.1%. Actual +0.2%
  • 5:00 Eurozone Revised GDP. Estimate 0.4%
  • All Day – Eurogroup Meetings
  • 8:30 US Average Hourly Earnings. Estimate 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 191K
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Rate. Estimate 3.8%

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Friday, September 7, 2018

EUR/USD for September 7 at 6:20 DST

Open: 1.1623 High: 1.1649 Low: 1.1614 Close: 1.1646

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1434 1.1553 1.1637 1.1718 1.1840 1.1961

EUR/USD was flat for most of the Asian session. The pair has ticked lower in European trade

  • 1.1637 is fluid. Currently, it is a weak support level
  • 1.1718 is the next resistance line

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1637, 1.1553, 1.1434 and 1.1312
  • Above: 1.1718, 1.1840 and 1.1961
  • Current range: 1.1637 to 1.1718

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.