EUR/USD – Euro edges lower as German consumer confidence softens

EUR/USD has posted slight losses in the Wednesday session, erasing the gains seen on Tuesday. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1673, down 0.18% on the day. On the release front, German GfK Consumer Climate edged lower to 10.5, shy of the estimate of 10.6 points. In France, consumer spending remained pegged at 0.1%, missing the estimate of 0.3%. Preliminary GDP posted a gain for of 0.2% for a second straight quarter. In the U.S, Preliminary GDP in the second quarter is expected at 4.0%. The previous GDP report came in at 4.1% in July. We’ll also get a look at Pending Home Sales, which is forecast to drop to 0.3%. On Thursday, Germany releases Preliminary CPI and the U.S publishes personal spending and unemployment claims.

The euro has taken a pause from its recent rally, which began on Friday and saw the euro gain 1.4%. On Tuesday, EUR/USD punched above the 1.17 line for the first time since August 1. The euro received a boost early in the week from an unexpectedly strong business confidence report in Germany. The Ifo Business Climate report improved to 103.8, easily beating the estimate of 101.9 points. This marked the first time this year that business confidence has improved, thanks to a strong German economy and a pause in the global trade war. On Wednesday, the news was less positive, as German GfK Consumer Climate dropped from 10.6 to 10.5 points, continuing the downward trend which has marked 2017. Back in January, the indicator was at 11.0 points, underscoring a decrease in consumer confidence.

The euro was last above the 1.20 line in May, and this symbolic level could remain elusive for quite some time. The reason? Mario Draghi and his ECB colleagues continue to send out the message that the ECB has no plans to raise rates until after the summer of 2019. The markets are not expecting a rate hike before October 2019, which means that the euro won’t be able to attract investors based on higher interest rates. This means that the euro is not particularly attractive unless there is an unexpected improvement in the German and eurozone economies.

Dollar steady in slow Asia trading

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Wednesday (August 29)

  • 2:00 German GfK Consumer Climate. Estimate 10.6. Actual 10.5
  • 2:45 French Consumer Spending. Estimate 0.3%. Actual 0.1%
  • 2:45 French Preliminary GDP. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Preliminary GDP. Estimate 4.0%
  • 8:30 US Preliminary GDP Price Index. Estimate 3.0%
  • 10:00 US Pending Home Sales. Estimate 0.3%
  • 10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate -0.7M

Thursday (August 30)

  • 2:00 German Import Prices. Estimate 0.0%
  • All Day – German Preliminary CPI. Estimate 0.1% 
  • 3:55 German Unemployment Change. Estimate -8K
  • 8:30 US Personal Spending. Estimate 0.4%
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 214K
  • 13:30 German Buba President Weidmann Speaks

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Wednesday, August 29, 2018

EUR/USD for August 29 at 6:25 DST

Open: 1.1694 High: 1.1698 Low: 1.1662 Close: 1.1673

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1434 1.1553 1.1637 1.1718 1.1840 1.1961

EUR/USD was flat for much of the Asian session. The pair has edged lower in European trade

  • 1.1637 is providing support
  • 1.1718 is the next resistance line

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1637, 1.1553, 1.1434 and 1.1312
  • Above: 1.1718, 1.1840 and 1.1961
  • Current range: 1.1637 to 1.1718

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.