The Dollar Drift

The Dollar Drift

Capital markets continue to digest various narratives getting pushed in many directions but continue to position on a very short horizon given absolute uncertainties, while US equity markets continue to print fresh record highs to start the week this despite a US 10 year yields firming several pips higher overnight.

S&P 500 breaking 2900 for the first time confirm yet again another bullish break higher. With the NAFTA breakthrough Carmakers were the big winners. But overall the US -Mex deal has deflected attention away from Trump’s legal setbacks as investors may see the light at the end of the tunnel hoping that the US -Sino trade dispute can end in an equally friendly manner.

The firming US yields are likely a result, in the absence of any significant news, a factor of positioning and a growing sense that traders have squeezed about as much juice out of this move as possible.

Oil Markets

Oil prices had fallen after the API reported a crude build when the markets were positioned for a draw while bullish bets remain on Iran sanction sentiment swings. Again, global supply concerns continue to act as a Foyle against bullish positions as the data does suggest higher global supply than anticipated. However, keep in mind API total was still 2.8 million barrels lower than last week’s DOE total and so the expected decline may still be in tomorrow’s more definitive report. As such, prices are unlikely to fall off the edge on the API data

Gold Markets

Higher US yields, the S&P pushing above 2900 and general re risking has Gold price precariously perched above the $ 1200 levels as Gold continues to lose its lustre once again. The dollar, however, continues to trade mixed but both currency and precious metals traders will be keeping a close eye on the 2.90 % 10-year yield level for some near-term USD guidance. Again the Greenback direction will be key

The Euro

After a 750 pips, round trip the EURUSD is as likely overbought at 1.1700 as it was oversold at 1.1300. And despite the positivity from this weeks IFO Expectations index and some conciliatory overtones from Italy regarding EU budget compliance, with the ECB firmly planted on sidelines, traders were fading above 1.1700 thinking the 1.1750 could prove a tough nut to crack without a push from the ECB.

The Malaysian Ringgit
Trade has been relatively quiet as the Rigging remains thinly trades with Asia traders focused on CNH but with a tepid inflation outlook and the miss on Q2 GDP their likelihood of a rate cut rises which of course will play out negatively for the Ringgit

The Chinese Yuan

The market remains fixed on the Counter-Cyclical Mechanism but appear bidding time just waiting to re-engage long USDCNH positions.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Stephen Innes

Stephen Innes

Head of Trading APAC at OANDA
Stephen has over 25 years of experience in the financial markets and currently based in Singapore as the Head of Trading Asia Pacific with OANDA. Stephen's market views focus on the movement of G-10 and ASEAN Currencies. His views appear in Bloomberg, CNBC.Reuters, New York Times WSJ and the Economist. His media appearances include Bloomberg TV & Radio, BBC International, Sky TV, Channel News Asia, ASTRO AWANI and BFM Malaysia. Stephen has an extensive trading experience in Spot and Forward FX, Currency and Interest Rate Futures, Money Market Derivatives and Precious Metals. Before joining OANDA, he worked with organisations like Nat West, Chemical Bank, Garvin Guy Butler, and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation. Stephen was born in Glasgow, Scotland, and holds a Degree in Economics from the University of Western Ontario.
Stephen Innes