Big revisions offset July miss on payrolls

By the numbers: July NFP and U.S Trade

Average hourly earnings m/m: +0.3%e vs. +0.3%a
Average hourly earnings y/y: +2.7%e vs. +2.7%a
U.S employment change: +193Ke vs. +157Ka
U.S unemployment rate: +3.9%e vs.+3.9%a
Prior change in NFP: revised higher from +213K to +248K
Prior change in private payrolls: revised higher from +202K to +234K
Prior manufacturing payrolls: revised lower from +36K to +33K

U.S Trade Balance: -$46.5Be vs. -$46.3B

Non-farm payroll (NFP)

U.S hiring eased a tad in July, but remains solid, and the unemployment rate fell, which suggests that the U.S labor market remains in expansion territory.

Payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted +157K, while the unemployment rate ticked down to +3.9%.

Revised figures show employers added +248K jobs in June and +268K in May, a net upward revision of +59K.

Wages rose +2.7% from a year earlier in July, a modest pace. The Labor force participation was +62.9% in July, unchanged after June’s increase.

Impact: The U.S dollar has lost some of its earlier shine against G7 currency pairs, while short-term rates are little changed. The move comes after the dollar strengthened for the third consecutive session yesterday, when the WSJ dollar index closed at its second-highest mark this year. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield has fallen to +2.973% from +2.980% before the report and down from +2.986% Thursday.

U.S Trade

The U.S trade deficit expanded in June at the fastest rate in two-year, reflecting rising imports and falling exports.

The trade deficit in goods and services increased +7.3% m/m, to a seasonally adjusted -$46.35B in June.

Exports fell -0.7% from May, while imports into the U.S. increased +0.6% on the month.

Market expectations were for the gap to widen to -$46.6B in June.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Dean Popplewell

Dean Popplewell

Vice-President of Market Analysis at MarketPulse
Dean Popplewell has nearly two decades of experience trading currencies and fixed income instruments. He has a deep understanding of market fundamentals and the impact of global events on capital markets. He is respected among professional traders for his skilled analysis and career history as global head of trading for firms such as Scotia Capital and BMO Nesbitt Burns. Since joining OANDA in 2006, Dean has played an instrumental role in driving awareness of the forex market as an emerging asset class for retail investors, as well as providing expert counsel to a number of internal teams on how to best serve clients and industry stakeholders.
Dean Popplewell