GBP/USD – British pound dips despite soft US durables

The British pound has posted losses in the Thursday session, erasing the gains made on Wednesday. In the North American session, the pair is trading at 1.3149, down 0.31% on the day. On the release front, there are no British events on the schedule. In the U.S, durable goods reports rebounded in June, but missed their estimates. Core Durable Goods Orders improved to 0.4%, shy of the estimate of 0.5%. Durable Goods Orders posted a gain of 1.0%, short of the estimate of 3.0%. Unemployment claims climbed to 217 thousand, above the estimate of 215 thousand. On Friday, the U.S releases Advance GDP and UoM Consumer Sentiment.

Retail sales growth remained strong in July with a reading of 20 points, although it was weaker than the sizzling release of 32 points in June, which was largely due to the unseasonable heat wave. However, the indicator is expected to drop in August. On Tuesday, manufacturer orders showed strong growth for a second straight month, with a reading of 11 points. The CBI Manufacturing Council welcomed the strong manufacturing data, but cautioned that “rising trade tensions and ongoing uncertainty over our future trade and customs arrangements are clearly taking their toll on manufacturers’ confidence and investment.” With U.S trade tariffs on EU products threatening to hurt British exports and the manufacturing sector, the markets are keeping a close eye on UK manufacturing indicators.

Trade tensions between the U.S and the European Union have cast a pall over relations between the sides, so the success of EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juckner’s visit to the White House was welcome news. The parties announced on Wednesday that they had agreed to hold off on any further tariffs while talks are ongoing. This is a major concession from Trump, who had threatened to impose tariffs on European car imports. U.S tariffs on European aluminum and steel will remain in place, but Juckner pointed out that the U.S has agreed to reassess these measures. It’s still too early to call the trade war over, with negotiations over trade expected to be contentious.

GBP/USD Fundamentals

Thursday (July 26)

  • 8:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 0.5%. Actual 0.4%
  • 8:30 US Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 3.0%. Actual 1.0%
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 215K. Actual 217K
  • 8:30 US Goods Trade Balance. Estimate -67.0B. Actual -68.3
  • 8:30 US Preliminary Wholesale Inventories.  Estimate 0.5%. Actual 0.0%
  • 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 39B. Actual 24B

Friday (July 27)

  • 8:30 US Advance GDP. Estimate 4.1%
  • 10:00 US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 97.1

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

GBP/USD for Thursday, July 26, 2018

GBP/USD July 26 at 11:40 DST

Open: 1.3190 High: 1.3213 Low: 1.3124 Close: 1.3149

GBP/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2852 1.2996 1.3088 1.3186 1.3263 1.3362

GBP/USD inched higher in the Asian session. The pair edged lower in the European session and has posted small losses in North American trade

  • 1.3088 is providing support
  • 1.3186 was tested earlier in resistance
  • Current range: 1.3088 to 1.3186

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.3088, 1.2996, 1.2852 and 1.2706
  • Above: 1.3186, 1.3263 and 1.3362

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.