GBP/USD – British pound shrugs off strong retail sales report

The British pound is unchanged in the Wednesday session. In the North American session, the pair is trading at 1.3141, down 0.02% on the day. On the release front, British CBI Realized Sales dropped to 20, but still beat the estimate of 16 points. In the U.S, New Home Sales dropped sharply to 631 thousand, well off the estimate of 669 thousand.

Retail sales growth remained strong in July at 20 points, although it was weaker than the sizzling release of 32 points in June, which was largely due to the unseasonable heat wave. However, the indicator is expected to drop in August. On Tuesday, manufacturer orders showed strong growth for a second straight month, with a reading of 11 points. The CBI Manufacturing Council welcomed the strong manufacturing data, but cautioned that “rising trade tensions and ongoing uncertainty over our future trade and customs arrangements are clearly taking their toll on manufacturers’ confidence and investment.” With U.S trade tariffs on EU products threatening to hurt British exports and the manufacturing sector, the markets are keeping a nervous eye on UK manufacturing indicators.

Tit-for-tat tariffs between the U.S and the EU has seen the trade relationship between them reach a low point. More tariffs could be coming, as the EU has vowed to impose $20 billion in tariffs on U.S products if the Trump administration slaps $50 billion on European goods. Will the nasty trade war worsen or will the sides pull back? There could be important developments on Wednesday, as an EU delegation led by European Commission President John-Claude Juckner meets with President Trump at the White House on Wednesday. Although the UK has one foot out the door, tariffs against the EU are having a negative impact on the British economy, and an improvement in relations between the US and the EU could boost the British pound.

GBP/USD Fundamentals

Wednesday (July 25)

• 4:30 High Street Lending. Estimate 39.1K. Actual 40.5K
• 6:00 British CBI Realized Sales. Estimate 16. Actual 20
• 10:00 US New Home Sales. Estimate 669K. Actual 631K
• 10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate -2.6M

Thursday (July 26)

• 8:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 0.5%
• 8:30 US Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 3.0%
• 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 215K

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

GBP/USD for Wednesday, July 25, 2018

GBP/USD July 25 at 12:30 DST

Open: 1.3143 High: 1.3178 Low: 1.3133 Close: 1.3141

GBP/USD Technical

GBP/USD was mostly flat in the Asian session. The pair edged higher in the European session but has given up those gains in North American trade

• 1.3088 is providing support
• 1.3186 is the next resistance line
• Current range: 1.3088 to 1.3186

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.3088, 1.2996, 1.2852 and 1.2706
• Above: 1.3186, 1.3263 and 1.3362

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