For the first time this cycle, a leading elections forecaster has given Democrats a greater than 50 percent chance to reclaim the House of Representatives in the 2018 midterms.
An analysis by Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a service of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, published on Tuesday shows the House tilting past 50-50 odds in favor of the Democrats taking it back. The party needs to flip 23 seats this fall in order to regain the majority they haven’t held since the first half of President Barack Obama’s first term.
Crystal Ball’s managing editor noted that it was “the first time this cycle we’ve gone beyond 50-50 odds on a House turnover.”
The nonpartisan political newsletter, which tracks congressional, presidential and gubernatorial elections, made changes in 17 House races over the past week — all in Democrats’ favor.
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