EUR/USD – Euro shrugs off strong German, Eurozone manufacturing PMIs

EUR/USD is hugging the 1.17 line in the Tuesday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1693, up 0.01% on the day. On the release front, German and Eurozone manufacturing PMIs beat expectations, but services PMIs missed their forecasts. There are no major U.S releases. On Wednesday, German Ifo Business Climate is expected to dip to 101.6 points and U.S New Home Sales is forecast to drop sharply to 671 thousand.

Eurozone and German manufacturing PMIs continue to point to expansion. The German release improved to 57.3, easily beating the estimate of 55.5, while the eurozone reading of 55.1 was above the forecast of 54.7. Both indicators had dropped over six consecutive months and the July releases put an end to that nasty streak. With the tariff war threatening to hurt German and eurozone exports, investors have been keeping a close eye on manufacturing data. Services PMIs were not as strong, as the German and eurozone releases missed their estimates.

The U.S. dollar has steadied this week, after broad losses on Friday. Investors reacted negatively to comments by President Trump which were critical of Federal Reserve monetary policy. On the weekend, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin engaged in damage control, saying at the G-20 meeting that Trump was not interfering with the Fed policy of gradually raising rates. However, investors weren’t buying Mnuchin’s apologetics, and the U.S dollar continued to lose ground in Monday’s Asian session. There was more for investors to fret over, as Trump also attacked the EU and China for manipulating their currencies and keeping interest rates lower. This has raised concerns that the current global trade tensions could be followed by a currency war. Growing concerns over the dangers of the ongoing trade war were summed up in the final communiqué from the G-20 meeting in Argentina over the weekend, which noted that “heightened trade and geopolitical tensions pose an increased risk to global growth”.

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EUR/USD Fundamentals

Tuesday (July 24)

  • 3:00 French Flash Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 52.6. Actual 53.1
  • 3:00 French Flash Services PMI. Estimate 55.7. Actual 55.3
  • 3:30 German Flash Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 55.5. Actual 57.3
  • 3:30 German Flash Services PMI. Estimate 54.6. Actual 54.4
  • 4:00 Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 54.7. Actual 55.1
  • 4:00 Eurozone Flash Services PMI. Estimate 55.0. Actual 54.4
  • 9:00 US HPI. Estimate 0.4%
  • 9:45 US Flash Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 55.1
  • 9:45 US Flash Services PMI. Estimate 56.5
  • 10:00 US Richmond Manufacturing Index. Estimate 18

Wednesday (July 25)

  • 4:00 German Ifo Business Climate. Estimate 101.6
  • 10:00 US New Home Sales. Estimate 671K

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

 

EUR/USD for Tuesday, July 24, 2018

EUR/USD for July 24 at 4:20 DST

Open: 1.1693 High: 1.1705 Low: 1.1655 Close: 1.1682

 

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1434 1.1553 1.1637 1.1728 1.1829 1.1910

EUR/USD ticked lower in the Asian session and is showing stronger movement in European trade

  • 1.1637 is providing support
  • 1.1728 is  the next line of resistance

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1637, 1.1553, 1.1434 and 1.1312
  • Above: 1.1728, 1829 and 1.1910
  • Current range: 1.1637 to 1.1728

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.