Is the negotiating table being dusted off?
Was it a storm in teacup? Equity markets across Asia shrugged off yesterday’s post-tariff announcement weakness and are trading in the black through the Asian session. Nikkei225 rose 0.95%, Australian stocks rose 0.68% and even China shares managed gains of 2.30%, recouping all of yesterday’s losses. What has caused this shift in sentiment? Well, China’s Vice Minister of Commerce, Wang Shouwen, urged his US counterparts to resolve the current conflict with a new round of bilateral negotiations. Early murmurings from the US administration could imply that they are amenable to a resumption of talks at a high level, Bloomberg reports.
A tenuous and unstable state of affairs
Currencies lag behind
Currency pairs have halted the risk-off trend started yesterday but have yet to reverse yesterday’s moves to any degree. USD/CNH is posting its first down day in three, but so far has only managed a slide of 0.59% while AUD/USD has recovered 0.28% on the day.
AUD/USD Daily Chart
US inflation data in the headlights
Today’s data calendar is a mixed bag, with German CPI for June kicking off the European session followed by Euro-zone industrial production for May. Inflation is seen holding steady with the increase expected to be the same as May, up 0.1% m/m and up 2.1% y/y. Factory output is expected to rebound from April’s slump, seen rising 1.2% m/m and 2.1% y/y.
US June consumer prices are seen rising 0.2% m/m and 2.9% y/y while core prices, excluding food and energy are forecast to gain 0.2% m/m and 2.9% y/y. Given that the Fed has said recently that it will not overreact if prices stray above their medium target in the near term, it would require a number significantly different from estimate to provoke a meaningful market reaction.
You can access the full data calendar on MarketPulse at https://www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/
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