USD/CAD – Canadian dollar dips, BoC rate decision looms

The Canadian dollar has posted slight losses in the Wednesday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3154, up 0.31% on the day. On the release front, In the U.S, the focus is on inflation reports, with PPI and Core PPI both expected to soften to 0.2%. The Bank of Canada will set the benchmark rate and release a rate statement. On Thursday, Canada publishes New Housing Price Index. The US will release CPI and Final CPI as well as unemployment claims.

The spotlight is on the Bank of Canada, which holds its monthly rate meeting on Wednesday. The markets are expecting that Bank policymakers will raise rates by a quarter-point to 1.50%, a level not seen since December 2008. Earlier this month, BoC Governor Stephen Poloz said that the July rate decision would be based on economic data, and Friday’s strong employment data will be added ammunition in favor of raising rates at the upcoming meeting. The economy created 31.8 thousand jobs in June, well above the estimate of 22.3 thousand. Wage growth also looked strong, as hourly earnings gained 3.5% in June on an annualized basis. The Canadian economy is forecast to gain 2% this year, after a strong performance of 3% in 2017. Inflation has improved and is close to the BoC target of 2 percent. However, bank policymakers remained concerned about escalating trade tensions, which includes a tariff spat between the U.S and Canada.

Investors remain uneasy about the tariff battle being waged between the U.S and its major trading partners, particularly China. After the U.S and China imposed tariffs on each other of some $30 billion, the Trump administration has raised the ante, threatening to hit China with further tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods. China cannot retaliate in kind, since it does not import that amount of goods from the U.S. Still, the Chinese can take steps which will make it more difficult for U.S companies to do business in China. The U.S dollar has benefited from the recent trade battles, and if this trend continues, the Canadian dollar could be facing some substantial headwinds.

  Investors turn risk-averse on tariff war escalation

  ( Update 1) When the going gets tough, the tough get going

  Bank of Canada Expected to Hike on Wednesday

Wednesday (July 11)

• 8:30 US Core PPI. Estimate 0.2%
• 8:30 US PPI. Estimate 0.2%
• 10:00 BoC Monetary Policy Report
• 10:00 BoC Rate Statement
• 10:00 BoC Overnight Rate. Estimate 1.50% 
• 10:00 US Final Wholesale Inventories. Estimate 0.5%
• 10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories
• 11:15 BoC Press Conference
• 12:30 US FOMC Member Rafael Bostic Speaks
• 13:01 US 10-year Bond Auction
• 16:30 US FOMC Member John Williams Speaks

Thursday (July 12)

• 8:30 Canadian NHPI. Estimate 0.1%
• 8:30 US CPI. Estimate 0.2%
• 8:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.2%
• 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 226K

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Wednesday, July 11, 2018

USD/CAD, July 11 at 7:55 DST

Open: 1.3114 High: 1.3174 Low: 1.3108 Close: 1.3154

USD/CAD Technical

USD/CAD has posted small gains in the Asian and European sessions

• 1.3067 is providing support
• 1.3160 was tested earlier in resistance. It is a weak line
• Current range: 1.3067 to 1.3160

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.3067, 1.2970 and 1.2831
• Above: 1.3160, 1.3292, 1.3436 and 1.3530

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