EUR/USD – Euro edges lower, US inflation reports next

EUR/USD has posted slight losses in the Wednesday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1712, down 0.28% on the day. On the release front, there are no major German or European events. ECB President Mario Draghi spoke at an event in Frankfurt but did not comment on monetary policy. In the U.S, the focus is on inflation reports, with PPI and Core PPI both expected to soften to 0.2%. On Thursday, Germany releases Final CPI and the ECB publishes its minutes from the June policy meeting. The US will release CPI and Final CPI as well as unemployment claims.

Investors remain uneasy about the tariff battle being waged between the U.S and its major trading partners, particularly China. After the U.S and China imposed tariffs on each other of some $30 billion, the Trump administration has raised the ante, threatening to hit China with further tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods. China cannot retaliate in kind, since it does not import that amount of goods from the U.S. Still, the Chinese can take steps which will make it more difficult for U.S companies to do business in China. The U.S dollar has benefited from the recent trade battles, and if this trend continues, the euro could be facing some substantial headwinds.

Financial experts gave a thumbs-down to the eurozone’s economic outlook, according to the June ZEW Economic Sentiment indicators. The German and eurozone releases both dropped to their lowest levels since August 2012, dropping to -24.2 and -13.4, respectively. The surveys point to concern over the eurozone’s economic outlook for the next six months. Internal divisions within the EU over migration and fears of a full-blown global trade war have investors worried that the eurozone could be heading into significant headwinds, which could send the euro downwards.

  Investors turn risk-averse on tariff war escalation

  ( Update 1) When the going gets tough, the tough get going

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Wednesday (July 11)

  • 3:00 ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks
  • Tentative – German 10-year Bond Auction. Actual 0.36/1.6
  • 8:30 US Core PPI. Estimate 0.2%
  • 8:30 US PPI. Estimate 0.2%
  • 10:00 US Final Wholesale Inventories. Estimate 0.5%
  • 10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Actual -4.1M
  • 12:30 US FOMC Member Rafael Bostic Speaks
  • 13:01 US 10-year Bond Auction
  • 16:30 US FOMC Member John Williams Speaks

Thursday (July 12)

  • 2:00 German Final CPI. Estimate 0.1%
  • 2:45 French Final CPI. Estimate 0.1%
  • 5:00 Eurozone Industrial Production. Estimate 1.2%
  • All Day – Eurogroup Meetings
  • 7:30 ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
  • 8:30 US CPI. Estimate 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 226K

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Wednesday, July 11, 2018

EUR/USD for July 11 at 6:30 DST

Open: 1.1744 High: 1.1748 Low: 1.1695 Close: 1.1712

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1434 1.1553 1.1637 1.1728 1.1829 1.1910

EUR/USD ticked lower in the Asian session and has posted slight losses in European trade

  • 1.1637 is providing support
  • 1.1728 is fluid. Currently, it is a weak resistance line

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1637, 1.1553 and 1.1434
  • Above: 1.1728, 1.1829, 1.1910 and 1.2026
  • Current range: 1.1637 to 1.1728

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.
Kenny Fisher

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