EUR/USD – Euro unchanged on mixed eurozone data

EUR/USD is almost unchanged in the Tuesday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1649, up 0.08% on the day. On the release front, there are no key eurozone events. PPI jumped to 0.8%, well above the estimate of 0.4%. Retail Sales edged down to 0.0%, shy of the forecast of 0.1%. On Wednesday, Germany and the eurozone will release Services PMIs.

German and eurozone manufacturing PMIs in June pointed to expansion. However, the indicators also continued a troubling downward trend, as the both PMIs have dropped for six straight months, raising concerns among investors about the strength of the eurozone economy. Recent trade tensions are threatening to hamper the eurozone export sector, which in turn could weigh on manufacturing output. This has put the spotlight on German and eurozone manufacturing PMIs, which are bellwethers of the strength of the manufacturing sector. Germany, the locomotive of the eurozone, produced soft consumer numbers last week. Retail Sales plunged 2.1%, its steepest decline in 2018. As well, Preliminary CPI fell to 0.1%, down from 0.5% a month earlier.

On Friday, the euro moved higher, in response to a dramatic announcement that EU leaders had hammered out a deal on migration. However, the deal was short on details appears to be a stopgap which papers over the deep divisions that still remain in the EU over immigration. German Chancellor Angela Merkel didn’t have much time to celebrate the news, as her government is again in crisis. On Sunday, German Interior Minister Horst Seehofer offered to resign, saying the migrant deal didn’t go far enough in protecting Germany from illegal immigration. Seehofer heads the CSU, which is the junior coalition partner in the coalition. Merkel will have to find a way to keep Seehoger on board if she wants to stay in power, and if this political crisis continues, the euro could lose ground.

  Risk is in the air

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Tuesday (July 3)

• 2:45 French Government Budget Balance. Actual -55.1B
• 3:00 Spanish Unemployment Change. Estimate -101.0K. Actual -90.0K
• 5:00 Eurozone PPI. Estimate 0.4%. Actual 0.8%
• 5:00 Eurozone Retail Sales. Estimate 0.1%. Actual 0.0%
• 10:00 US Factory Orders. Estimate 0.1%
• Tentative – IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism. Estimate 54.2
• All Day  – Total Vehicle Sales. Estimate 17.0M

Wednesday (July 4)

• 3:50 French Final Services PMI. Estimate 56.4
• 3:55 German Final Services PMI. Estimate 53.9
• 4:00 Eurozone Final Services PMI. Estimate 55.0

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Tuesday, July 3, 2018

EUR/USD for July 3 at 6:45 DST

Open: 1.1639 High: 1.1673 Low: 1.1620 Close: 1.1649

EUR/USD Technical

EUR/USD was flat in the Asian session and has ticked higher in the European session

• 1.1637 was tested earlier in support and is a weak line
• 1.1728 is the next resistance line

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.1637, 1.1553, 1.1434 and 1.1312
• Above: 1.1728, 1.1829 and 1.1910
• Current range: 1.1637 to 1.1728

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