USD/CAD – Wobbly Canadian dollar falls to 12-month low on Trade Worries

The Canadian dollar has posted considerable losses in the Tuesday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3273, up 0.54% on the day. On the release front, there are Canadian events on the schedule. In the U.S. construction data was mixed. Building Permits dropped to 1.30 million, shy of the estimate of 1.35 million. This marked a 3-month low. Housing Starts improved to 1.35 million, beating the estimate of 1.31 million. On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will participate in a panel at the European Forum in Sintra, Portugal. The U.S will release Existing Home Sales.

Are we heading for a global trade war? Investors are nervous, and softer risk appetite has weighed on the Canadian dollar. The Canadian dollar is currently trading at its lowest level since June 2017. The most recent round of the trade spat between China and the U.S started on Friday, when the U.S announced a 25 percent tariff on $50 billion in Chinese goods. After China responded with an identical move on U.S. imports, President Trump has now threatened to impose 10 percent tariffs on some $200 billion in Chinese goods. Not surprisingly, China has threatened to retaliate to this latest move. Trump has vowed to take action on the $375 billion trade deficit that the U.S has with China, claiming that the latter is guilty of unfair trade practices. With the first of the U.S tariffs scheduled to take effect on July 6 and no signs that either side will blink first, the Canadian dollar could be sailing into nasty headwinds.

With U.S President Trump making good on his threat to slap tariffs on his trading partners, the Canadian government is scrambling to protect the economy. Trump has said the U.S could impose tariffs of 25 percent on Canadian-built vehicles, which would be disastrous for the Canadian automotive sector, which is worth some C$80 billion to the economy every year. The Trudeau government has promised to help sectors hit with US tariffs, but bailing out the auto industry would cost billions. Canada may have to provide the U.S with more concessions in the NAFTA negotiations, in order to stave off tariffs against Canadian vehicles, which could have a disastrous effect on economic growth.

  Risk off moves supported by tit-for-tat trade dispute

  Investors’ Concerned By Prospect of More Tariffs

USD/CAD Fundamentals

Tuesday (June 19)

  • 8:30 US Building Permits. Estimate 1.35M. Actual 1.30M
  • 8:30 US Housing Starts. Estimate 1.31M. Actual 1.35M

Wednesday (June 20)

  • 8:30 US Current Account. Estimate -129B
  • 9:30 Fed Chair Powell Speaks
  • 10:00 US Existing Home Sales. Estimate 5.55M

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

 

USD/CAD for Tuesday, June 19, 2018

USD/CAD, June 19 at 9:30 DST

Open: 1.3201 High: 1.3292 Low: 1.3196 Close: 1.3273

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2970 1.3067 1.3160 1.3292 1.3436 1.3530

In the Asian session, USD/CAD inched higher and has posted more gains in European trade. The pair is steady in the North American session.

  • 1.3160 is providing support
  • 1.3292 was tested earlier in resistance. It remains a weak line
  • Current range: 1.3160 to 1.3292

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.3160, 1.3067, 1.2970 and 1.2900
  • Above: 1.3292, 1.3436 and 1.3530

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.