EUR/USD – Euro edges higher ahead of ECB meeting

EUR/USD has posted slight gains in the Thursday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1827, up 0.29% on the day. On the release front, German Final CPI climbed 0.5%, a 3-month high. This reading matched the forecast. Later in the day, the ECB winds up its policy meeting and will release a rate statement. In the U.S, consumer spending is expected to improve in May, with Retail Sales expected to rise to 0.4% and Core Retail Sales predicted to rise to 0.5%. Unemployment Claims is expected to tick up to 223 thousand. On Friday, the eurozone releases Final CPI and the US publishes manufacturing and consumer confidence reports.

As widely expected, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter-point, to a range between 1.75 percent and 2.00 percent. Fed Chair Jerome Powell sounded hawkish in his press conference, saying that the economy was performing well and that “overall outlook for growth remains favorable”. This message echoed the rate statement, in which policymakers said that “economic activity has been rising at a solid rate”, pointing to stronger consumer spending and business investment. What was may have been the most notable development was that the Fed rate projections were revised upwards, predicting two additional rate hikes in 2018, for a total of four hikes. Until now, the Fed had projected three rate hikes this year. This represents a nod to the strength of the U.S economy and could boost the dollar against its rivals.

Fresh from the Fed’s rate hike, the markets will shift their focus to Frankfurt, where the ECB is holding its policy meeting. Investors will be looking for any clues with regard to the ECB’s asset-purchase program. Currently, the bank is purchasing EUR 30 billion/mth, and the scheme is scheduled to wind up in September. However, some ECB policymakers want to phase out the program slowly, rather than turn off the tap completely in September. What is clear is that the ECB board members will conduct a detailed discussion about the fate of the stimulus package at this meeting. If ECB President Mario Draghi discusses any new developments regarding stimulus at his press conference, we could see some volatility from EUR/USD on Thursday.

  Back to the drawing board

  ECB eyed after Fed raises rates

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Thursday (June 14)

  • 1:30 German Final CPI. Estimate 0.5%. Actual 0.5%
  • 2:45 French Final CPI. Estimate 0.4%. Actual 0.4%
  • 7:45 Eurozone Main Refinancing Rate. Estimate 0.00%
  • 8:30 ECB Press Conference
  • 8:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.5%
  • 8:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.4%
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 223K
  • 8:30 US Import Prices. Estimate 0.5%
  • 10:00 US Business Inventories. Estimate 0.3%
  • 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 87B

Friday (June 15)

  • 2:00 German WPI. Estimate 0.3%
  • 5:00 Eurozone Final CPI. Estimate 1.9%
  • 5:00 Eurozone Final Core CPI. Estimate 1.1%
  • 8:30 US Empire State Manufacturing Index. Estimate 19.1
  • 10:00 US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 98.5

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Thursday, June 14, 2018

EUR/USD for June 14 at 5:50 DST

Open: 1.1793 High: 1.1831 Low: 1.1789 Close: 1.1827

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1613 1.1718 1.1809 1.1915 1.1996 1.2154

EUR/USD ticked higher in the Asian session and has posted small gains in European trade

  • 1.1809 has switched to a support role after gains by USD/CAD. It is a weak line
  • 1.1915 is the next resistance line

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1809, 1.1718, 1.1613 and 1.1448
  • Above: 1.1915, 1.1996 and 1.2154
  • Current range: 1.1809 to 1.1915

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is unchanged in the Thursday session. Currently, long positions have a majority (54%), indicative of trader bias towards EUR/USD continuing to climb to higher ground.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.
Kenny Fisher

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