The DAX index has posted slight losses in the Tuesday session. Currently, the DAX is at 12,820, down 0.10% on the day. On the release front, German ZEW Economic Sentiment posted a dismal reading of -16.1 points, missing the estimate of -14.6 points. Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment followed the same trend, with a reading of -12.6, well below the forecast of 0.1 points. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates to a range between 1.75% and 2.00%.
The ECB holds its next policy meeting on Thursday, and the markets will be looking for any clues with regard to the ECB’s asset-purchase program. Currently, the bank is purchasing EUR 30 billion/mth, and the scheme is scheduled to wind up in September. However, some ECB policymakers want to phase out the program slowly, rather than turn off the tap completely in September. ECB Chief Economist recently said that the ECB board members would conduct a detailed discussion about the fate of the stimulus package at the June meeting. The head of the German central bank, Jens Weidmann, weighed into the discussion last week, saying that the markets expected the stimulus program to wind down before the end of the year and that such expectations were “plausible”. ECB head Mario Draghi will likely make mention of the program at his press conference following the Thursday meeting, so traders should be prepared for some volatility from EUR/USD on Thursday.
The G-7 summit in Quebec lived up to the negative hype, as the “G-6 +1” was the scene of sharp disagreements between U.S President Trump and the other six leaders. Trump openly clashed with the other leaders over his recent tariffs against the European Union and Canada and pulled back his endorsement of the traditional post-summit statement put out by the other members. The undiplomatic Trump also tweeted that Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau, who hosted the summit, was “dishonest and weak”. Canada and the EU are furious over recent US tariffs, especially because of Trump pushed them through on the basis of ‘national security’. The glaring cracks in G-7 unity could cast a long shadow on trade relations between the U.S and the “G-6”, which could unnerve investors and send the stock markets downwards.
Tuesday (June 12)
- 5:00 German ZEW Economic Sentiment. Estimate -14.6
- 5:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment. Estimate 0.1
Wednesday (June 13)
- 5:00 Eurozone Employment Change. Estimate 0.3%
- 5:00 Eurozone Industrial Production. Estimate -0.5%
- 14:00 US FOMC Statement
- 14:00 US Federal Funds Rate. Estimate <2.00%
- 14:30 US FOMC Press Conference
*All release times are DST
*Key events are in bold
DAX, Tuesday, June 12 at 6:20 DST
Previous Close: 12,842 Open: 12,928 Low: 12,814 High: 12,947 Close: 12,830
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