USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Edges Higher, BoC Up Next

The Canadian dollar has steadied on Wednesday, after posting losses for a six straight day. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2974. On the release front, it’s a busy day on both sides of the border. In the US, Preliminary GDP came in at 2.2%, just shy of 2.3%. ADP nonfarm payrolls dropped sharply to 178 thousand, well off the estimate of 191 thousand. In Canada, the current account deficit jumped to C$19.5 billion, above the estimate of C$18.1 billion. The Raw Materials Price Index dropped to 0.7%, well below the forecast of 2.1%. All eyes are on the Bank of Canada, which is expected to stay on the sidelines and hold the benchmark rate at 1.25%. On Thursday, Canada will release GDP and the US publishes Personal Spending and unemployment claims.

The Canadian dollar remains under pressure this week. The currency has declined 1.4 percent in the month of May and dropped to a 2-month low on Tuesday. There could be further headwinds for the dollar on Wednesday, if, as expected, the Bank of Canada holds interest rates at 1.25 percent. Inflation has moved closer to the BoC target of 2 percent and economic growth has been steady, so the bank may opt for the sidelines when policymakers meet on Wednesday. However, with the Federal Reserve widely expected to raise rates next month, the Canadian dollar will be less attractive to investors. Meanwhile, the growing political crisis in Italy has unnerved investors, which could hurt minor currencies like the Canadian dollar, which tends to lose ground when risk appetite is weak.

Investors are also keeping a close eye on the on-again off-again summit between the U.S and North Korean leaders. President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un are scheduled to meet in Singapore on June 12, but curiously, neither side will confirm whether the meeting is on. Last week, Trump sent a letter to Kim, saying that Trump was canceling the much-anticipated meeting. However, the White House has since sent a team to Singapore and a senior North Korean official is on his way to Washington to meet with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. If there is confirmation that the meeting is on, investor risk appetite could rise and push the Canadian dollar to higher ground.

  Bank of Canada Next

  Safety is the priority

USD/CAD Fundamentals

Wednesday (May 30)

  • 8:15 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 191K. Actual 178K
  • 8:30 Canadian Current Account. Estimate -18.1B. Actual -19.5B
  • 8:30 Canadian RMPI. Estimate 2.1%. Actual 0.7%
  • 8:30 Canadian IPPI. Estimate 0.6%. Actual 0.5%
  • 8:30 US Preliminary GDP. Estimate 2.3%. Actual 2.2%
  • 8:30 US Goods Trade Balance. Estimate -71.2B. Actual -68.2B
  • 8:30 US Preliminary GDP Price Index. Estimate 2.0%. Actual 1.9%
  • 8:30 US Preliminary Wholesale Inventories. Estimate 0.4%. Actual 0.0%
  • 10:00 BoC Rate Statement
  • 10:00 BoC Overnight Rate. Estimate 1.25%
  • 14:00 US Beige Book

Thursday (May 31)

  • 8:30 Canadian GDP. Estimate 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Core PCE Price Index. Estimate 0.1%
  • 8:30 US Personal Spending. Estimate 0.4%
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 230K

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Wednesday, May 30, 2018

USD/CAD, May 30 at 8:50 DST

Open: 1.3021 High: 1.3041 Low: 1.2959 Close: 1.2974

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2757 1.2850 1.2943 1.3015 1.3125 1.3273

USD/CAD ticked higher in the Asian session. The pair has posted losses in the European session

  • 1.2943 is providing support
  • 1.3015 is the next line of resistance
  • Current range: 1.2943 to 1.3015

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.2943, 1.2850 and 1.2757
  • Above: 1.3015, 1.3125, 1.3273 and 1.3387

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is showing movement towards long positions, consistent with the losses that USD/CAD has recorded on Wednesday. Currently, short positions have a majority (60%), indicative of trader bias towards USD/CAD continuing to move downwards.

  1. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.