EURUSD – Euro Ticks Higher, German Business Climate Meets Expectations

EUR/USD has posted slight gains in the Friday session, erasing the losses seen on Thursday. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1705, up 0.23% on the day. On the release front, German Ifo Business Climate ticked higher to 102.2, above the estimate of 102.00 points. In the US, the focus is on durable goods reports. Core durable goods orders is expected to climb to 0.5%, but the markets are braced for a decline of 1.3% from durable good orders. If the latter indicator does record a sharp decline, the dollar could lose ground.

As Italy moves closer establishing a new government, the EU and investors are watching nervously. On Wednesday, President  Sergio Mattarella handed a mandate to Giuseppe Conte to form a coalition. Conte is from the Five Star Movement, which plans to govern with the Lega Nord. Both parties are anti-establishment and euro-sceptic. Their platform includes increased deficit spending and a crackdown on immigration, two issues which could put Italy, the third largest economy in Europe, on a collision course with Brussels. Earlier in the week, ECB governing council member Ewald Nowotny admitted that the political situation in Italy had “created a lot of nervousness”, but that the new government would be judged on its actions.

The Federal Reserve released the minutes from its May meeting. In the minutes, some Fed policymakers said they favored removing the phrase that “the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative”. Not surprisingly, the minutes didn’t shed light on the Fed’s plans, saying that another rate hike would occur “soon”, on the assumption that the US economy continues to perform as expected. Still, a quarter-point rate hike in August is virtually a given, with the CME Group setting the odds of a hike at 95 percent. This would mark a second hike in 2018. After that? The Fed projection remains at three rates hikes in 2018, but some analysts are predicting four increases this year.

  Dangerous Brinkmanship

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Friday (May 25)

  • 4:00 German Ifo Business Climate. Estimate 102.0. Actual 102.2
  • All Day – ECOFIN Meetings
  • 8:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 0.5%
  • 8:30 US Durable Goods Orders. Estimate -1.3%
  • 9:20 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks
  • 10:00 US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 98.8
  • 10:00 US Revised UoM Inflation Expectations
  • 11:45 US FOMC Member Rafael Bostic Speaks
  • 15:20 German Buba President Weidmann Speaks

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Friday, May 25, 2018

EUR/USD for May 25 at 4:25 DST

Open: 1.1719 High: 1.1726 Low: 1.1687 Close: 1.1705

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1312 1.1448 1.1613 1.1718 1.1809 1.1915

EUR/USD continues to break below support levels. On Friday, the pair posted small gains in the Asian session and the trend has continued in European trade

  • 1.1613 is providing support
  • 1.1718 is a fluid line. Currently, it is a weak line

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1613, 1.1448 and 1.1312
  • Above: 1.1718, 1.1809, 1.1915 and 1.2025
  • Current range: 1.1613 to 1.1718

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is almost unchanged in the Friday session. Currently, long positions have a majority (55%), indicative of trader bias towards EUR/USD continuing to move higher.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.