Fed Member Says Rate Hikes Could End in 2019

Interest rate hikes could come to an end for this cycle in 2019, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said Thursday.

One of the more hawkish central bankers when it comes to monetary policy, Harker said he envisions a scenario where the Federal Reserve increases its benchmark overnight rate three times total in 2018 and three more times next year, then stops as the economy hits equilibrium.

“I think we’re getting close to neutral,” he told CNBC’s Steve Liesman in a live interview from Dallas. “If we see inflation start to accelerate, then I would be open to a fourth increase this year. But I’d have to see evidence of that first.”

The policymaking Federal Open Market Committee, of which Harker is a nonvoting member this year, approved a quarter-point rate hike in March and is widely expected to add another in June and one more in September. Whether the committee approves a fourth hike in December remains an open question, with traders currently assigning it a 39 percent chance.

Policy doves, who favor lower rates, seemed to get a boost Wednesday, when minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting indicated that officials would be willing to let inflation run above the Fed’s 2 percent target for a temporary period.


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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza