Commodity Currencies are Beaming

Currency Markets 
The US dollar has given up some of its gains overnight as investors keenness for Greenbacks has temporarily abated. The shifting dynamics around trade and tariffs does give pause for thought as US dollar bulls are consolidating gains at a very tricky and treacherous junction for both the USD and US bond yields. After making some significant advances last week, USD profit taking was the name of the game in Monday NY session.

Commodity currencies are beaming on the back of surging Commodity Indexes as oil prices broke through last week high water mark. The de-escalation in the US -Sino tariff and trade has put to rest, temporarily albeit, some of the market biggest fears around a Global growth slowdown and commodity markets and prices are returning in vogue.

Also,  there’s the usual air of uncertainty with both May FOMC minutes and  April ECB minutes due this week. Trader’s will be more inclined not to get ahead of the curve before these releases.

EM currencies performed better overnight as stretched positions unwound and the bounce in oil prices provided some idiosyncratic benefits to petrol related currencies. However,  the common denominator in the EM space remains the stronger USD which could continue to run amok after the overnight profit taking inspired u-turn.

So far, the beginning of the week is  shaping up to be all about consolidating and gingerly contesting last week’s significant breakouts

Oil Markets

The markets positive take on “no trade war “and Venezuela political woes are driving Oil prices higher. The global condemnation surrounding the election of incumbent Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro has as expected trigged the Trump administration to levee new sanctions on the debt-ridden country. Tightening the economic screws will severely cripple  Petróleos de Venezuela ability to export while making it virtually impossible for the country to acquire dollars.

Also, US secretary of state Mike Pompeo raised the Iran sanctions bar by promising to impose the “strongest sanctions in history” on Iran to bring it to the bargaining table for a new nuclear deal.

The effect of OPEC -Non-OPEC supply compliance and the US abandonment of the JCPOA has created ultra-tight supply conditions to the point where any hint of supply disruption will send oil prices soaring. Supply-side dynamics are apparently in the driver’s seat suggesting prices should push higher near term.

Equity Markets

Equity investors revelled as trade war fears have temporarily abated suggesting the parties are heading on a far more appealing approach than feared. But hope springs eternal that both superpowers can iron out a market-friendly bilateral trade agreement and at the minimum maintain, stay at the negotiation table until the more contentious trade issues can be ironed out. The fear is that the “no trade war “announcement is little more than kicking the can down the road., but only time will tell.

Gold Markets
Gold price movements continue to be as much as anything a USD trade. Gold prices moved off overnight lows on the back of USD profit taking. But from both a fundamental and technical picture the Gold bears continue to have the upper hand as bullish signals are non-existent. Given the resurgent dollar, a reprieve on the trade war front, equity markets stabilising and evaporated geopolitical risk premiums, the balance of risks suggests gold prices move lower over the near term.

Currencies

EUR: A bit of a mixed bag overnight with ECB’s Nowotny erring dovish but Italian Political risk premiums eased after Conte is said to be the next Prime Minister. However, given the Italian affair has little chance of a spill over into other peripheral debt and with the ECB already leaning very dovish with the first hike not priced until September 2019, the Italian risk should be of little influence on ECB policy.

JPY: After falling to move above 111.40 overnight, the dollar bulls turned more conservative without the support from higher US yields as 10 Year UST’s were little changed from last weeks levels

AUD: Strong Beta currencies are benefiting from the conciliatory actions on the US-China trade front as global equity markets soared and Wall Street has followed suit starting the week on a robust note. But the bullish case for commodities on the back of surging oil prices is building which is underpinning AUD sentiment.

MYR: We would typically expect USAsia to trade lower as the US dollar has taken a bit of a detour overnight. However, the Riggit remains vulnerable to the lack of insight into fiscal planning.  But markets levels look attractive from both a Bond yield and currency perspective not to mention surging oil prices, so we are left to surmise that once fiscal clarity is offered, we could finally see the Ringgit sentiment improve. I the meantime   EM Asia FX will remain susceptible to the stronger USD

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Stephen Innes

Stephen Innes

Head of Trading APAC at OANDA
Stephen has over 25 years of experience in the financial markets and currently based in Singapore as the Head of Trading Asia Pacific with OANDA. Stephen's market views focus on the movement of G-10 and ASEAN Currencies. His views appear in Bloomberg, CNBC.Reuters, New York Times WSJ and the Economist. His media appearances include Bloomberg TV & Radio, BBC International, Sky TV, Channel News Asia, ASTRO AWANI and BFM Malaysia. Stephen has an extensive trading experience in Spot and Forward FX, Currency and Interest Rate Futures, Money Market Derivatives and Precious Metals. Before joining OANDA, he worked with organisations like Nat West, Chemical Bank, Garvin Guy Butler, and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation. Stephen was born in Glasgow, Scotland, and holds a Degree in Economics from the University of Western Ontario.
Stephen Innes