It’s all about the Benjamins

It’s all about the Benjamins

The USD continues to rally across the board as US yields continued to be the primary driver and threatening to break out above the fundamental 3.125 level, but the ease of the  50+pb steeping that got packed into the Two-Year vs Ten  Year treasury curve is creating the unwelcoming tremors across global markets. The speed of the move is what’s catching investors by surprise, and if  3.25 US Ten Year Yield is indeed the last line of defence, crossing that Rubicon will trigger a tsunami of dollar buying.

With 24 hours left in the trading week, it’s all about closing levels particularly on EURUSD, USDJPY and of course 10-year yields. The Friday finish line will be a very key indicator of overall market sentiment which should confirm the USD is firmly in the driver’s seat.

While US data didn’t necessarily move the dial, it didn’t thwart demand either with the Philly Fed soared to 34.4 in May vs 21.0 forecasts and 23.2 prior.

JPY: Not too unexpected, traders are expressing their USD stronger bias through the USDJPY  as the widening 10-year differential is too attractive to ignore

EUR: A very quiet overnight session after the Wednesday tumult.

MYR: The surging USD and higher US  yields continue to weigh on MYR sentiment  Higher oil prices continue to make the MYR less vulnerable to external shocks, but it is hard to argue the current direction with US yields moving higher. But the political risk premium is currently offsetting the benefits from Oil as uncertainty continues to build over the Debt agency reaction to the Council removing the budget-balancing GST
Oil Markets

The dual supply shortcomings from Iran and Venezuela continue to provide substantial support. However topside buyer remorse set in after Saudi Arabia commented that there are ample oil supplies and of course after such a busy week a bit of expected trader fatigue set in which has likely contributed to the wave of profit-taking as oil prices veer off recent highs. As for next week, unless an unexpected meltdown, bullish sentiment  should remain intact, and you know what they say “when in Rome.”

Gold Markets
Gold remains under pressure from the US dollar and utterly vulnerable to higher US bond yields which are showing signs of a significant topside breakout after the 10-year Treasury note yield hit 3.1 % overnight. The inflationary overtones from oil prices coupled with a strong US retail sales print have increased Fed rate hike expectations. As the trickle-down effects from US fiscal stimulus continue to show in the data, bond yields will move higher, but ultimately the positive data prints will leave a larger than life footprint on Fed members interest rate views and challenge the current dot plot scenario.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Stephen Innes

Stephen Innes

Head of Trading APAC at OANDA
Stephen has over 25 years of experience in the financial markets and currently based in Singapore as the Head of Trading Asia Pacific with OANDA. Stephen's market views focus on the movement of G-10 and ASEAN Currencies. His views appear in Bloomberg, CNBC.Reuters, New York Times WSJ and the Economist. His media appearances include Bloomberg TV & Radio, BBC International, Sky TV, Channel News Asia, ASTRO AWANI and BFM Malaysia. Stephen has an extensive trading experience in Spot and Forward FX, Currency and Interest Rate Futures, Money Market Derivatives and Precious Metals. Before joining OANDA, he worked with organisations like Nat West, Chemical Bank, Garvin Guy Butler, and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation. Stephen was born in Glasgow, Scotland, and holds a Degree in Economics from the University of Western Ontario.
Stephen Innes
Stephen Innes

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