EUR/USD – Euro Steady on Lack of Eurozone Data

EUR/USD is unchanged in the Friday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1933, up 0.15% on the day. In economic news, it’s a quiet end to the week, with no German or eurozone events. ECB President Mario Draghi will speak at an event in Florence and the US releases UoM Consumer Sentiment, which is expected to improve to 98.4 points.

The ECB continues to send a message of cautious optimism to the markets, and this was underscored by the release of the ECB Economic Bulletin on Thursday. The report stated that the eurozone economy continues to show “solid and broad-based expansion” but did acknowledge that growth in the first quarter slowed. As for inflation, policymakers remain confident that inflation will continue to move towards the inflation target of 2 percent. However, inflation remains subdued and has not shown signs of an upward trend. The report reaffirmed that the ECB plans to maintain interest rates at current levels for an “extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases.”

In the US, Thursday indicators were a mixed bag. Unemployment claims impressed, remaining unchanged at 211 thousand. This easily beat the estimate of 219 thousand. The US labor market is at near or full employment, which has resulted in a slowdown in job growth due to a shortage of skilled labors. Earlier in the week, JOLTS Job Openings climbed to a record 6.6 million. At the same time, inflation levels remain low, as the Federal Reserve target of 2 percent remains elusive. CPI rebounded with a gain of 0.2%, but this fell short of the estimate of 0.3%. Core CPI edged lower to 0.1%, shy of the forecast of 0.2%. Inflation levels will be an important factor for the Fed in its monetary policy projection, which remains at two more hikes in 2018. According to the CME Group, the odds that the Fed will press the rate trigger at the June meeting stand at 100%.

US CPI takes the dollar off the boil

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Friday (May 11)

  • 8:30 US Import Prices. Estimate 0.5%
  • 9:15 ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks
  • 10:00 US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 98.4
  • 10:00 US Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Friday, May 11, 2018

EUR/USD for May 12 at 5:40 DST

Open: 1.1916 High: 1.1933 Low: 1.1891 Close: 1.1933

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1718 1.1809 1.1915 1.2025 1.2092 1.2235

EUR/USD showed little movement in the Asian session. In European trade, the pair edged lower but has recovered and is moving higher

  • 1.1915 is providing support
  • 1.12025 is the next resistance line

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1915, 1.1809, 1.1718 and 1.1613
  • Above: 1.2025, 1.2092 and 1.2235
  • Current range: 1.1915 to 1.2025

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is showing slight movement towards long positions. Currently, long positions have a slight majority (55%), indicative of trader bias towards EUR/USD breaking out and moving upwards.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.