EUR/USD has ticked higher in the Friday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.2339, up 0.10% on the day. On the release front, German Final CPI edged lower to 0.4%, matching the estimate. The US will release UoM Consumer Sentiment, which is expected to drop to 100.6 points.
Tensions continue to simmer in the Middle East, as Syria braces for a strike by the United States. President Trump has vowed to respond to an alleged chemical attack by Syrian forces, and a US navy task force is sailing towards Syria. Russia has promised to shoot down any US missiles, and relations between the US and Russia have nosedived. The US has received support from France and the UK, and if the US does carry out a military strike, the currency markets could respond with volatility.
The Federal Reserve minutes from the March meeting were hawkish in tone, reflective of a solid US economy. All of the Fed policymakers indicated that the US economy would continue to improve and that inflation would rise in the next few months. At the March meeting, the Fed unanimously voted to raise rates by a quarter-point, bringing the benchmark rate to a range between 1.50% and 1.75%. The Fed projection for rate policy in 2018 remains at three hikes, although there is speculation that the Fed could revise the forecast to four rate hikes. Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed would likely continue to raise rates in order to keep a lid on inflation, but added that the rate moves would be gradual. A new headache for the Fed is the escalating trade battle between the US and China, which could hurt the economy and raise consumer prices. The Fed is expected to sit tight in May and raise rates at the June meeting.
Friday (April 13)
- 2:00 German Final CPI. Estimate 0.4%. Actual 0.4%
- 5:00 Eurozone Trade Balance. Estimate 20.2B. Actual 21.0B
- 10:00 US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 100.6
- 10:00 US JOLTS Jobs Openings. Estimate 6.11M
- 10:00 US Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations
*All release times are DST
*Key events are in bold
EUR/USD for Friday, April 13, 2018
EUR/USD for April 13 at 5:55 DST
Open: 1.2327 High: 1.2346 Low: 1.2317 Close: 1.2333
EUR/USD was flat in the Asian session and has edged lower in the European session
- 1.2319 is a weak support line
- 1.2460 is the next resistance line
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.2319, 1.2235, 1.2092 and 1.2025
- Above: 1.2460, 1.2581 and 1.2662
- Current range: 1.2319 to 1.2460
OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
EUR/USD ratio has reversed directions and is showing gains in long positions. Currently, short positions have a majority (58%), indicative of EUR/USD breaking out and moving to lower ground.