EUR/USD – Euro Edges Lower, Investors Eye ECB Minutes

EUR/USD continues to post slow but steady gains. In the Thursday session, the pair is trading at 1.2341, down 0.22% on the day. On the release front, Eurozone Industrial Production disappointed with a second straight decline. The reading of -0.8% fell short of the estimate of 0.1%. Later in the day, the ECB releases the minutes of its March rate meeting. In the US, the key event of the day is unemployment claims, which is expected to drop to 231 thousand. On Friday, Germany releases Final CPI and the US publishes UoM Consumer Sentiment.

Investors are casting a wary eye on developments in Syria. Last week, Syrian forces allegedly used chemical weapons against rebel positions, and a UN Security Council meeting on Tuesday ended inconclusively after Russia cast a veto on a US proposal to probe the attack. US President Trump has warned that a US response is imminent, and Russia has countered that it will respond to any US move. If Trump makes good on his promise, investor risk appetite could sink and impact on the currency markets.

The Federal Reserve minutes were hawkish in tone, a reflection of a strong US economy. All of the Fed policymakers indicated that the US economy would continue to improve and that inflation would rise in the next few months. At the March meeting, the Fed unanimously voted to raise rates by a quarter-point, bringing the benchmark rate to a range between 1.50% and 1.75%. The Fed projection for rate policy in 2018 remains at three hikes, although there is speculation that the Fed could revise the forecast to four rate hikes. Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed would likely continue to raise rates in order to keep a lid on inflation, but added that the rate moves would be gradual. A new headache for the Fed is the escalating trade battle between the US and China, which could hurt the economy and raise consumer prices. Next on the menu? The Fed is expected to sit tight in May and raise rates at the June meeting.

Middle East embers look set to ignite

Dollar Gains Limited by Geopolitical Risks

EUR/USD Fundamentals

 Thursday (April 12)

  • 2:45 French Final CPI. Estimate 1.0%. Actual 1.0%
  • 5:00 Eurozone Industrial Production. Estimate 0.1%. Actual -0.8%
  • 7:30 ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 231K
  • 8:30 US Import Prices. Estimate 0.2%
  • 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate -11B
  • 12:00 German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
  • 13:01 US 30-year Bond Auction

 Friday (April 13)

  • 2:00 German Final CPI. Estimate 0.4%
  • 5:00 Eurozone Trade Balance. Estimate 20.2B
  • 10:00 US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 100.6

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

 

EUR/USD for Thursday, April 12, 2018

EUR/USD for April 12 at 6:50 DST

Open: 1.2368 High: 1.2380 Low: 1.2331 Close: 1.2344

 

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2092 1.2235 1.2319 1.2460 1.2581 1.2662

EUR/USD inched lower in the Asian session and has edged lower in the European session

  • 1.2319 is providing support
  • 1.2460 is the next resistance line

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.2319, 1.2235, 1.2092 and 1.2025
  • Above: 1.2460, 1.2581 and 1.2662
  • Current range: 1.2319 to 1.2460

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio continues to show gains in short positions. Currently, short positions have a majority (61%), indicative of EUR/USD continuing to move to lower ground.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.