Gold Slides as US Final GDP Beats Estimate

Gold has posted sharp losses in the Wednesday session, continuing the downward movement which marked Tuesday trading. In North American trade, the spot price for an ounce of gold is $1328.95, down 1.20% on the day. In economic news, Final GDP impressed with a gain of 2.9%, beating the estimate of 2.7%. There was more good news as Pending Home Sales jumped 3.1%, rebounding after the previous release of -4.7%. On Thursday, the US publishes unemployment claims and UoM Consumer Sentiment.

The US economy continues to fire on all cylinders, with Final GDP for the fourth quarter expanding 2.9%. This was higher than the initial estimate of 2.5% back in February. The strong reading has improved risk appetite and sent gold reeling, as the base metal has fallen 1.6% this week.

The tariff dispute between the US and China has dented investor confidence and triggered strong volatility in gold prices. As a safe-haven commodity, gold jumped 1.8% last week, buoyed by President Trump’s dramatic announcement that he was imposing stiff tariffs on up to $60 billion in Chinese imports. China vowed to retaliate and slap imports on a range of US products. This move came on the heels of a blanket US tariff on steel imports. Although Trump backtracked and exempted Canada, Mexico and other countries from the steel tariffs, the threat of a global trading war has unnerved investors. This week, however, China was singing a more conciliatory tune, saying it would apply to the World Trade Organization to overturn the tariffs. The US has imposed the tariffs under a national security provision, but China has argued that the move is a trade barrier with the intent of protecting domestic producers. Although the dispute has not been resolved, the Chinese move has eased tensions and restored investor risk appetite, in the hope that both the US and China will climb down from their trees and reach some agreement instead of imposing tariffs on each other. This sentiment has boosted the stock markets while sending gold prices lower.

WTO Warns Trade War Between US and China Could Have Severe Economic Impact

XAU/USD Fundamentals

 Wednesday (March 28)

  • 8:30 US Final GDP. Estimate 2.7%. Actual 2.9%
  • 8:30 US Final GDP Price Index. Estimate 2.3%. Actual 2.3%
  • 8:30 US Goods Trade Balance. Estimate -74.1B. Actual -75.4B
  • 8:30 US Preliminary Wholesale Inventories. Estimate 0.6%. Actual 1.1%
  • 10:00 US Pending Home Sales. Estimate 2.1%. Actual 3.1%
  • 10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories
  • 12:00 US FOMC Member Raphael Bostic Speaks

 Thursday (March 30)

  • 8:30 US Core PCE Price Index. Estimate 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Personal Spending. Estimate 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 230K
  • 9:45 US Chicago PMI. Estimate 62.1
  • 10:00 US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 101.9

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

 

XAU/USD for Wednesday, March 28, 2018

XAU/USD March 28 at 12:30 EST

Open: 1345.09 High: 1347.15 Low: 1328.80 Close: 1328.95

 

XAU/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1260 1285 1307 1337 1375 1416
  • XAU/USD showed little movement in the Asian session. The pair lost ground in European trade and continues to head lower in North American trade
  • 1337 is providing support
  • 1375 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 1337 to 1375

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1307, 1285 and 1260
  • Above: 1337, 1375, 1416 and 1433

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

XAU/USD ratio is showing little movement this week. Currently, short positions have a majority (56%), indicative of trader bias towards XAU/USD continuing to head to lower ground.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.