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Gold Starts Week with Gains, Fed Rate Hike Ahead

Gold has posted gains in the Monday session. In North American trade, the spot price for an ounce of gold is $1318.29, up 0.30% on the day. On the release front, there are no US indicators on the schedule.

On Friday, US numbers were mixed. Construction data disappointed, as Building Permits dropped to 1.30 million, shy of the estimate of 1.30 million. Housing Starts followed a similar trend, falling to 1.24 million and missing the forecast of 1.29 million. There was better news from consumer confidence, as UoM Consumer Sentiment improved to 102.0, beating the estimate of 99.3 points. This marked the first time that the indicator has been over the symbolic 100 level since October 2017.

Traders should be prepared for some volatility from gold prices this week, with the Federal Reserve poised to raise interest rates on Wednesday. This would mark the first hike of 2018. According to the CME Group, the odds of a quarter-point raise stand at an impressive 91 percent. What can we expect from the Fed during the year? The pressing question is how many rate hikes will we see in 2018. The current Fed projection remains at three hikes, but a robust US economy has raised speculation that the Fed could accelerate the pace to four hikes, which would be good news for the US dollar. Investors will be keeping a close eye on key US data, especially upcoming inflation indicators. If these numbers improve, we’re likely to see four rate hikes in 2018.

XAU/USD Fundamentals

Monday (March 19)

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

 

XAU/USD for Monday, March 19, 2018

XAU/USD March 19 at 11:45 EST

Open: 1314.43 High: 1319.73 Low: 1307.77 Close: 1318.35

 

XAU/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1260 1285 1307 1337 1375 1416

Further levels in both directions:

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

In the Monday session, XAU/USD ratio is showing long positions with a majority (56%). This is indicative of trader bias towards XAU/USD continuing to move higher.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher [4]

Market Analyst at OANDA [5]
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including Investing.com, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.
Kenny Fisher

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