EUR/USD – Euro Unchanged, Investors Eye Jobless Claims

EUR/USD has inched lower in the Thursday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.2363, down 0.03% on the day. On the release front, there are no eurozone or German indicators. French Final CPI edged up to 0.0%, beating the estimate of 0.1%. In the US, unemployment claims is expected to drop to 227 thousand, and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is forecast to fall to 23.1 points. On Friday, Germany releases the Wholesale Price Index and the eurozone will publish Final CPI. The US will release Building Permits, Housing Starts and Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment.

The eurozone economy continues to improve, but manufacturing indicators for January pointed downwards in Germany and the eurozone. Eurozone Industrial Change declined 1.0% in January, its sharpest drop since December 2016. The estimate stood at -0.4%. Last week, German numbers disappointed. Factory Orders in January plunged 3.9%, worse than the estimate of -1.9%. This marked the second decline in the past three months. This was followed by a decline of 0.1% from Industrial Production, marking a second straight decline. The reading was well off the forecast of 0.6%. The latest numbers are somewhat surprising as the German economy remains very strong, and has led the way as eurozone economy continues to expand.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel was elected to a fourth term on Wednesday, as Germany finally has a government in place, after an inconclusive election in September. However, Merkel will have her work cut out for her in what could be her last stint as leader of the eurozone’s largest economy. Merkel’s stature has diminished after a poor election, and she will preside over a fractured coalition. The vote in the German parliament was 364 to 315. Merkel was forced to give the SDP the finance and foreign ministry portfolios, so we can expect the new government to be more supportive of eurozone integration, including assistance for weaker eurozone members.

Risk -Off continues to seep

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Thursday (March 15)

  • 3:45 French Final CPI. Estimate -0.1%. Actual 0.0%
  • 8:30 Spanish 10-year Bond Auction. Actual 1.36%
  • 8:30 US Empire State Manufacturing Index. Estimate 14.9
  • 8:30 US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Estimate 23.1
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 227K
  • 8:30 US Import Prices. Estimate 0.3%
  • 10:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index. Estimate 72
  • 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate -99B
  • 16:00 US TIC Long-Term Purchases. Estimate 35.9B

Friday (March 16)

  • 3:00 German WPI. Estimate 0.2%
  • 6:00 Eurozone Final CPI. Estimate 1.2%
  • 6:00 Eurozone Final Core CPI. Estimate 1.0%
  • 8:30 US Building Permits. Estimate 1.33M
  • 8:30 US Housing Starts. Estimate 1.30M
  • 10:00 US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 99.6
  • 10:00 US JOLTS Job Openings. Estimate 5.85M 

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Thursday, March 15, 2018

EUR/USD for March 15 at 6:25 EDT

Open: 1.2368 High: 1.2384 Low: 1.2352 Close: 1.2363

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2200 1.2286 1.2357 1.2460 1.2581 1.2660

EUR/USD posted small gains in the Asian session but has given up these gains in European trade

  • 1.2357 was tested earlier in support. It remains a weak line
  • 1.2460 is the next resistance line

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.2357, 1.2286, 1.2200 and 1.2092
  • Above: 1.2460, 1.2581 and 1.2660
  • Current range: 1.2357 to 1.2460

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is showing little movement in the Thursday session. Currently, short positions have a majority (59%), indicative of EUR/USD breaking out and moving to lower ground.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.