USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Inches Higher, US CPI Next

USD/CAD has ticked higher in the Monday session. In North American trade, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2830, up 0.15% on the day. On the release front, it’s a  quiet start to the week. There are no Canadian indicators on the calendar. The US releases the federal deficit, with an estimate of $222.3 billion. On Tuesday, Canada releases Ivey PMI and the US publishes CPI reports.

The Canadian dollar ended the week on a high note, posting gains on Friday. The Canadian economy added 15.4 thousand jobs in February, after a sharp decline of 88 thousand a month earlier. This was below the estimate of 21.3 thousand, but investors were pleased with the strong turnaround. In the US, employment numbers were a mix on Friday. Wage growth dropped to 0.1% in February, down from 0.3% a month earlier. This missed the estimate of 0.2%, and marked the lowest gain in four months. The news was much better from nonfarm payrolls, which soared to 313 thousand, crushing the estimate of 205 thousand. The mixed numbers have eased concerns about the Fed raising rates four times in 2018, which is good news for the Canadian dollar.

Tensions have eased somewhat regarding the tariffs which President Trump imposed on Thursday. Trump has exempted Canada and Mexico from the tariffs, and has said that Washington could ease the duties on other countries as well. Importantly, is strong domestic opposition to Trump’s move, including senior Republican lawmakers who have said they will work to overturn the tariffs, which could spark an all-out trade war. So far, the markets are confident that a solution to the tariff tussle will be found.

U.S and Canada Payrolls Strong

USD/CAD Fundamentals

Monday (March 12)

  • 13:01 US 10-year Bond Auction
  • 14:00 US Federal Budget Balance. Estimate -222.3B

Tuesday (March 13)

  • 8:30 US CPI. Estimate 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.2%
  • 10:15 BoC Governor Stephen Poloz Speaks

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Monday, March 12, 2018

USD/CAD, March 12 at 8:00 EST

Open: 1.2811 High: 1.2838 Low: 1.2803 Close: 1.2830

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2514 1.2630 1.2757 1.2865 1.2920 1.3014

USD/CAD was flat in the Asian session and has edged higher in European trade

  • 1.2757 is providing support
  • 1.2865 is a weak resistance line
  • Current range: 1.2757 to 1.2865

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.2757, 1.2630 and 1.2514
  • Above: 1.2865, 1.2920, 1.3014 and 1.3165

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is almost unchanged in the Monday session. Currently, short positions have a majority (60%), indicative of trader bias towards USD/CAD reversing directions and moving lower.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.