US Futures Add to Friday’s Losses

Wall Street Poised For Sharp Losses Again on Monday

US futures are trading back in the red again on Monday, adding to substantial declines seen on Friday when higher interest rate and inflation expectations weighed heavily on stocks.

We’ve seen a sharp increase in US bond yields over the last week after the Federal Reserve released a more hawkish than expected statement – alongside its monetary policy decision – and the jobs data reported a significant increase in earnings. Markets now have three rate hikes this year more than 50% priced in and some people are even anticipating a fourth, which is unusually ahead of current Fed forecasts.

While Friday’s declines were larger than we’ve become accustomed to and the biggest drop in the Dow since June 2016, I don’t think it yet signals that a large correction is underway. Small corrections are normal in markets, even if we haven’t experienced them as often in recent years. Asian and European markets have suffered significant losses this morning in response to the US declines on Friday but we’ll have to see over the coming days whether this will trigger more downside.

Dow 30 Daily Chart

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Bitcoin Testing $7,600 Lows Again

Bitcoin on other hand is struggling yet again at the start of the week and is trading back below $8,000 at the time of writing. Cryptocurrencies have seriously fallen out of favour since the middle of December and constant negative news flow and speculation of increased regulation has exacerbated the move lower, much in the same way that the constant flow of positive news stories aided the explosion higher.

Bitcoin (CME) Daily Chart

Source – Thomson Reuters Eikon

In much the same way that picking the high on the way up proved to be extremely difficult, it’s tough to establish a realistic low for bitcoin and others. It would appear cryptos can’t rely on the speculators to drive prices higher again as its likely they’ve been severely burned over the last couple of months and may be reluctant to jump back in.

BoE “Super Thursday” Eyed This Week

This week will be a little quieter than the one just gone, although there are a few central bank meetings that traders will be keen on. The Bank of England meeting stands out, with it being accompanied by the quarterly inflation report and press conference with Governor Mark Carney. The central bank raised interest rates last year and many people expect another in 2018. With the economic outlook so uncertain though and inflation probably having peaked, I question whether another rate hike is as nailed on as some would suggest.

DAX Drops to 17-Week Low, Eurozone Retail Sales Slide

Economic Calendar

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Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Currency Analyst at OANDA
Based in London, England, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a Market Analyst. With more than five years' experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while conducting macroeconomic commentary. He has been published by The Financial Times, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Telegraph, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Sky News, Bloomberg, CNBC and BBC. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and he is recognized as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.