UK Minister Says All Brexit Forecasts Have Been Wrong

Brexit minister David Davis rekindled a debate about the credibility of the government’s own forecasts by saying on Thursday that every economic prediction on the British economy since the EU referendum has been wrong.

Davis made the comments in parliament after being asked about leaked analysis, drawn up by government officials, which suggests Britain would be worse off after Brexit under a wide range of potential scenarios.

He questioned the value of such research, saying the work is “incredibly difficult” and that every institution that had tried it had failed.

“Every forecasting model on the performance on the British economy post the referendum by every major organization, the banks, the government organizations and, indeed, international organizations has proven wrong,” Davis said.



“One of the ways it has been proven wrong is because employment in this country has grown despite the forecasts to record levels today. We will be seeking to do the best we can to ensure that growth record is maintained.”

Bodies such as the International Monetary Fund and the Bank of England have raised their forecasts from gloomy predictions made around the time of 2016 referendum. However, Britain’s economy has underperformed many of its peers and is likely to lag global growth this year.

In the same debate, junior Brexit minister Steve Baker suggested government officials may be undermining government policy by calibrating their work to show only the downside of Brexit.

via Reuters

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza