Canadian GDP Rose 0.4 in November

The Canadian economy accelerated in November by the most in six months, with activity broad-based across a number of sectors including manufacturing and keeping the Bank of Canada on track to raise interest rates again before long.

Gross domestic product rose by 0.4 percent from October’s flat reading, Statistics Canada said on Wednesday, in line with economists’ expectations and the biggest increase since May 2017.

Growth in oil and gas extraction, and the retail and real estate sectors also contributed to November’s strength. The data saw the Canadian dollar extend gains against the greenback.


usdcad Canadian dollar graph, January 31, 2018

Economists said the report put the fourth quarter on track for about 2 percent growth. While that would be below the 2.5 percent that the Bank of Canada anticipates, it would still cap a strong year for the Canadian economy.

The expanding economy is expected to prompt the central bank to raise interest rates again in the coming months, with markets fully pricing in another hike by May. The bank has raised rates three times since last July.

With the economy operating near full capacity, the Bank of Canada does not need to see growth of 3 percent or 4 percent to keep on its tightening path, said Mark Chandler, head of Canadian fixed income and currency strategy at Royal Bank of Canada.

Chandler expects the central bank to hold rates steady at its next meeting in March before raising again in April.

via Reuters

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza