Gold Moves Higher, Congress Ends Shutdown

Gold has edged higher in the Tuesday session. In North American trade, the spot price for an ounce of gold is $1337.52, up 0.26% on the day. On the release front, it’s another quiet day in the US. The sole event of the day, the Richmond Manufacturing Index, slowed to 14, well off the forecast of 19 points. On Wednesday, the US will publish Existing Home Sales.

The US government shutdown turned out to be little more than a nuisance, with only one working day lost. On Monday, the Senate voted 266-150 to extend government funding until February 8. This stopgap measure will enable the government to provide services during that time, but the lawmakers will need to hammer out a longer-term agreement, as these short extensions are just band aid solutions. The Democrats held up a funding bill last week, in order to force the Republicans to the table over illegal immigration. The Republicans have promised to hold a vote on this issue, but many Democratic lawmakers remain skeptical that President Trump and the Republicans will deal in good faith over immigration.

What can we expect from the Federal Reserve over the next few months? The Fed was busy in 2017, raising interest rates three times. This month, the Fed began to trim its balance sheet, to the tune of $10 billion/mth. Next up is a policy meeting on January 31. A rate hike is a virtual certainty, with CME Fed Watch pegging the odds of a quarter-point hike at 98.5%. Although this means that a rate hike has been priced in by the markets, the dollar could nevertheless gain ground after a hike, as a rate increase would signify an important vote of confidence in the economy by the powerful Fed. If the US economy continues to expand at a clip of around 3 percent, there is a strong likelihood of a second rate hike in the first half of 2018.

 

XAU/USD Fundamentals

Tuesday (January 23)

  • 10:00 US Richmond Manufacturing Index. Estimate 19. Actual 14

Wednesday (January 24)

  • 10:00 US Existing Home Sales. Estimate 5.72M

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

XAU/USD for Tuesday, January 23, 2018

XAU/USD January 23 at 12:20 EST

Open: 1333.93 High: 1339.27 Low: 1331.47 Close: 1337.52

XAU/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1260 1285 1307 1337 1375 1416
  • XAU/USD edged higher in the Asian session. The pair was flat in European trade and is choppy in the North American session
  • 1307 is providing support
  • 1337 is under strong pressure in resistance
  • Current range: 1307 to 1337

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1307, 1285, 1260 and 1240
  • Above: 1337, 1375 and 1416

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

XAU/USD ratio is showing gains in long positions. Currently short positions have a slim majority (52%), indicative of slight trader bias towards XAU/USD reversing directions and moving to lower ground.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.