USD/CAD – Subdued as US Inflation, Retail Sales Within Expectations

USD/CAD is subdued in the Friday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.2535, up 0.08% on the day. On the release front, there are no Canadian events. In the US, Retail Sales and CPI reports were within expectations.

There was unexpected news out of China on Wednesday. A report that China was considering slowing the purchase of US government bonds shook up the currency markets and sent the Canadian dollar lower. China boasts the largest currency reserves, estimated at $3 trillion. It is also the biggest holder of US government bonds, in the amount of $1.19 trillion. China is unlikely to halt all purchases, but its vast holdings of US bonds could serve as leverage in a trade war with the US. President Trump has railed against the US trade imbalance with trade with China, and by serving notice that it might reduce its US Treasury purchases, China appears to be flexing some muscle. If China does indeed make any moves regarding these bond purchases, traders can expect sharp market movement.

After strong gains in December, the Canadian dollar has held its own against the greenback in January. There are two important factors for this positive trend. First, Canada has recorded outstanding employment numbers in the past two months. In December, the economy added 78.6 thousand jobs, defying experts who predicted a minuscule gain of 1.8 thousand. This release comes on the heels of a superb November release, when the economy added 79.5 thousand news jobs. The unemployment rate dropped to 5.7% in December, down from 5.9% a month earlier. Second, the recent rise in oil prices, which are up 6.8% since mid-December, has boosted the commodity-based Canadian currency. The BoC is expected to raise rates later this month, which could boost the Canadian dollar.

 

USD/CAD Fundamentals 

Friday (January 12)

  • 8:30 US CPI. Estimate 0.1%. Actual 0.1%
  • 8:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.3%
  • 8:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.4% Actual 0.4%
  • 8:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.5%. Actual 0.4%
  • 10:00 US Business Inventories. Estimate 0.3%

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

 

USD/CAD for Friday, January 12, 2018

USD/CAD, January 12 at 8:40 EDT

Open: 1.2521 High: 1.2554 Low: 1.2508 Close: 1.2535

 

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2190 1.2351 1.2494 1.2630 1.2757 1.2860

USD/CAD ticked higher in the Asian session. In European trade, the pair edged upwards but has since retracted, erasing the earlier gains

  • 1.2494 is providing support
  • 1.2630 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 1.2494 to 1.2630

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.2494, 1.2351, 1.2190 and 1.2060
  • Above: 1.2630, 1.2757 and 1.2860

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio continues to show little movement this week. Currently, long positions have a majority (58%), indicative of trader bias towards USD/CAD reversing directions and moving to higher ground.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.