EUR/USD – Euro Dips Despite Sharp German Numbers

The euro has edged lower in the Tuesday session, following two straight losing sessions. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1929, down 0.35% on the day. On the release front, German Industrial Production rebounded with a sharp gain of 3.4%, above the estimate of 1.9%. Germany’s trade surplus widened to EUR 22.3 billion, beating the forecast of EUR 20.7 billion. The eurozone unemployment rate ticked down to 8.7%, matching the forecast. In the US, today’s key event is JOLTS Job Openings, which is expected to climb to 6.05 million.

More German indicators, more positive news. Industrial Production jumped 3.2%, after two consecutive declines. This marked only the second gain since July. Germany’s trade surplus climbed to EUR 22.3 billion in December, its highest surplus since May 2016. December indicators have pointed upward, including manufacturing and services PMIs, retail sales, and employment data. However, the political landscape in the eurozone’s largest economy remains cloudy. President Angela Merkel is now looking at the Social Democrats to help her make a new government, and preliminary talks are underway. The negotiations are likely to be lengthy, and the current caretaker government could remain in office for several more months.

When the Federal Reserve makes the financial headlines, the discussion is usually focused on interest rates. The Fed took advantage of a strong US economy in 2017, raising interest three times. Another quarter-point hike is widely expected later in January. As of this month, the Fed has started to shrink its massive balance sheet of $4.4 trillion. The balance sheet ballooned during the financial crisis of 2008-2009, and good times have allowed the Fed to begin trimming its portfolio. Incoming Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who takes over in February, has estimated that the balance sheet could drop to anywhere between $2.4 trillion to $2.9 trillion after several years of cuts. Fed policymakers have not indicated a magic number for the balance sheet, but the cuts indicate a vote of confidence in the US economy.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Tuesday (January 9)

  • 2:00 German Industrial Production. Estimate 1.9%. Actual 3.4%
  • 2:00 German Trade Balance. Estimate 20.7B. Actual 22.3B
  • 2:45 French Trade Balance. Estimate -4.8B. Actual -5.7B
  • 4:00 Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate. Estimate 11.0%. Actual 11.0%
  • 5:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate. Estimate 8.7%. Actual 8.7%
  • 6:00 US NFIB Small Business Index. Estimate 108.4
  • 10:00 US JOLTS Job Openings. Estimate 6.05M
  • Tentative – US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism. Estimate 52.3

Wednesday (January 10)

  • 2:45 French Industrial Production. Estimate -0.4%
  • 8:30 US Import Prices. Estimate 0.4%

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Tuesday, January 9, 2018

EUR/USD for January 9 at 6:00 EDT

Open: 1.1968 High: 1.1976 Low: 1.1926 Close: 1.1925

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1657 1.1777 1.1876 1.1961 1.2092 1.2221

EUR/USD was flat in the Asian and European sessions

  • 1.1876 is providing support
  • 1.1961 is the next resistance line

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1876, 1.1777 and 1.1657
  • Above: 1.1961, 1.2092, 1.2221 and 1.2357
  • Current range: 1.1876 to 1.1961

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is showing little movement in the Tuesday session. Currently, short positions have a majority (65%), indicative of EUR/USD continuing to move lower.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.