USD/CAD – Sizzling Job Numbers Sends Loonie to 14-Week High

The Canadian dollar has paused in the Monday session, after posting strong gains on Friday. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.2408, down 0.06% on the day. On the release front, the Bank of Canada releases its quarterly Business Outlook Survey. There are no major releases out of the US. On Tuesday, Canada releases Housing Starts and the US publishes JOLTS Jobs Openings.

Canada’s labor market continues to look red-hot, posting superb December numbers on Friday. The economy added 78.6 thousand jobs, crushing the estimate of 1.8 thousand. In November, the economy added 79.5 thousand. The unemployment rate dropped to 5.7%, down from 5.9% a month earlier. The strong numbers sent the Canadian dollar higher on Friday. The currency gained 1.4% last week, which marked a third winning week for the rejuvenated Canadian dollar.

Canada Adds 78,600 Jobs in December Defying Expectations

The Canadian dollar climbed 2.5% in December, and continues to move higher early in the New Year. Much of the loonie’s climb can be attributed to the rise in oil, which has jumped 6.8% since mid-December. Geopolitical tensions have boosted oil prices, in particular tensions with North Korea and the recent civil unrest in Iran. There is pressure on the Bank of Canada to raise its benchmark rate of 1.0%, which is lagging behind the Federal Reserve rate of between 1.25-1.50%. With the Fed widely expected raise rates in January, the Canadian dollar could lose ground if the BoC fails to respond with a rate hike of its own on January 17. However, the BoC may hold back, as it concerns continue over US threats to dismantle the free trade agreement.

USD/CAD Fundamentals 

Monday (January 8)

  • 10:30 BoC Business Outlook Survey
  • 12:40 US FOMC Member Raphael Bostic Speaks
  • 13:35  US FOMC Member John Williams Speaks
  • 15:00 US Consumer Credit. Estimate 17.8

Tuesday (January 9)

  • 8:15 Canadian Housing Starts. Estimate 240K
  • 10:00 US JOLTS Job Openings. Estimate 6.05M

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Monday, January 8, 2018

USD/CAD, January 8 at 8:00 EDT

Open: 1.2414 High: 1.2420 Low: 1.2378 Close: 1.2408

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2060 1.2190 1.2351 1.2494 1.2630 1.2757

USD/CAD showed little movement in the Asian session and ticked lower in European trade

  • 1.2351 is providing support
  • 1.2494 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 1.2351 to 1.2494

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.2351, 1.2190 and 1.2060
  • Above: 1.2494, 1.2630, 1.2757 and 1.2860

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is almost unchanged in the Monday session. Currently, long positions have a majority (60%), indicative of trader bias towards USD/CAD reversing directions and moving higher.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.